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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›UNC @ UVA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|SCOTT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
42FPI
UNCACCNORTH CAROLINA
2-0
80
51
65
28%
8
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#25AP
25FPI
UVAACCVIRGINIA
2-0
62
50
73
10%
46
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNC26CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
11
PROE
59
TEMPO
8
EXPLOSIVE11p
11
PROE59p
59
TEMPO8p
8
UVA47CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
67
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE67p
67
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.6
VIRGINIA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH CAROLINAVIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Gio LopezPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax JohnsonPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL87%Daniel KingOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakai MooreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin BlaskeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB87%Andrew SimpsonLB · 64% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikai GbayorPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Kobe PaysourWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake JohnsonPORTAL · AUBURN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan OwensTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Khmori HousePORTAL · ARKANSAS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus AllenDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin GibsonDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Smith VilbertDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Antre RobinsonPORTAL · OREGON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ MimsPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB37%Davion GausePORTAL · NC STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb HoodRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTravis Burgess · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLJ.B. Shabazz · SIGNEE ★4Will Conroy · SIGNEE ★3Da'Ron Parks · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBCalvin Thomas · SIGNEE ★4DQ Forkpa · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEJelani Thurman · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEJordan Washington · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTrech Kekahuna · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKenton Dopson III · SIGNEE ★4Jakob Weatherspoon · SIGNEE ★4Julian Peterson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLVodney Cleveland · SIGNEE ★4Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu · SIGNEE ★4Trashawn Ruffin · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCrew Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
30.523 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.021 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.932 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545464061 OF 6 GRADED
RB33337310083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE40408526207 OF 20 GRADED
OL47477860206 OF 20 GRADED
DL45456865177 OF 17 GRADED
LB60602720135 OF 13 GRADED
DB535378972111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%79
RECRUITING CLASS#19 · 12/40 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 20 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
PACE
7676
PASS RATE
6969
EXPLOSIVENESS
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HAVOC
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNCBILL BELICHICK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
PACE
11
PASS RATE
7676
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNC OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
54
RET
0
NATIONAL
21OF 136
RET
11
FULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE
UNC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BILLY EDWARDS JR.QBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
604TH YR8464★3-13
MILES O'NEILLQBPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
482ND YR—64★3—
TRAVIS BURGESSQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
AU'TORI NEWKIRKQBRET
451ST YR—75★3—
DJ MAZZONEQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6249%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
4594%0%
SECONDARYDB
5231%9%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
47
RET
60
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
UNC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2040% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AIDAN BANFIELDOLRET
503RD YR8185★3+32
CHRISTO KELLYOLRET
494TH YR5185★3—
ANDREW THREATTOLPORTAL · CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
494TH YR3664★3—
J.B. SHABAZZOLTRUE FR
471ST YR—85★4—
JORDAN HALLOLRET
463RD YR6778★3-42
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FISHER CAMACDERET
854TH YR9364★3+11
KAM ROBINSONLBRET
704TH YR—83★3-3 2025
JASON HAMMONDDTRET
664TH YR7956★3-8
ANTHONY BRITTONDTRET
614TH YR8248★3-12
NNANNA ANYANWUDEPORTAL · UTSA
614TH YR5978★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
129OF 138
TAL
73
PERF
33
RET
100
DL
29OF 138
DL RET
49
LB
81OF 138
LB RET
94
FRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE
UNC RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEMON JUNERBRET
532ND YR6269★3+8
CHARLESTON FRENCHRBRET
523RD YR—17★3+37 2025
JAYLEN MCGILLRBRET
512ND YR2684★3+28
BENJAMIN HALLRBRET
453RD YR7264★3-50
JOJO TROUPERBRET
351ST YR—60★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556249%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454594%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
40
RET
26
DB
63OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE
UNC PASS CATCHERSn=2074% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN SHIPPWRRET
663RD YR9095★4+0
JELANI THURMANTEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
533RD YR5089★3+25
CARSON SNEEDTETRUE FR
511ST YR—75★3—
MASON HUMPHREYWRPORTAL · LEHIGH
494TH YR2264★3—
C.J. SADLERWRTRUE FR
491ST YR2094★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLEN JONESSPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
774TH YR7964★3-3
JACOBIE HENDERSONCBPORTAL · RUTGERS
674TH YR9964★3-18
JALEN MCNAIRSPORTAL · BUFFALO
584TH YR9745★3+20
OMILLIO AGARDCBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
583RD YR6164★3-32
CHRISTIAN ELLISSPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
564TH YR9964★3-6
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.7
43.1
— OFFENSE
46.0
48.2
— DEFENSE
39.5
38.0
SP+ OVERALL
6.4
12.7
FPI
6.3
12.6
ELO
1395
1652
TALENT
768
700
PRODUCTION
60
74
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
−18
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
OFF EFFICIENCY
18
41
DEF EFFICIENCY
51
87
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
15
67
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
70
69
FINISHING DRIVES
25
51
FIELD POSITION
46
22
TURNOVER MARGIN
22
90
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
PASS RATE
52.8%
28.5%
PACE
33.3s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
50.7%
73.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.0%
37.0%
PLAYS / GAME
54.0
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.6%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNC, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE