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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›PITT @ LOU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
PITTSBURGH
LOUISVILLE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
29FPI
PITTACCPITTSBURGH
2-0
54
59
80
40%
89
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#24AP
28FPI
LOUACCLOUISVILLE
1-1
74
72
84
35%
49
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
PITT79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
53
PROE
95
TEMPO
89
EXPLOSIVE53p
53
PROE95p
95
TEMPO89p
89
LOU69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
85
TEMPO
49
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE85p
85
TEMPO49p
49
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
PITTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
PITTSBURGH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.1
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPITTSBURGHLOUISVILLE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Raphael Williams Jr.WR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny JohnsonPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin HolmesTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB55%Juelz GoffPORTAL · BOISE STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesmond ReidRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB54%Javon McIntyreDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKavir Bains-MarquezDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashad BattleDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Rasheem BilesPORTAL · TEXAS · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle LouisDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL41%Francis BrewuPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlaine SpiresDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahsear WhittingtonPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB31%Eli HolsteinPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL30%Lyndon CooperOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff PersiOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TECarson Kent · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMARodney Dunbar · SIGNEE ★4Bryan Hamilton · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBDamon Ferguson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBRaion Strader · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNKentrail McRae · SIGNEE ★3Da'Ron Barksdale · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAlex Sanford Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEReston Lehman · SIGNEE ★4Isaiah Simmons · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJeremiah Warren · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISLincoln Hoke · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBCorey Dailey · SIGNEE ★4Angelo Renda · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNick Howard · SIGNEE ★4John Curran · SIGNEE ★3Mike Van Der Oord · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PITTSBURGH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.476 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.569 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.672 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252729262 OF 6 GRADED
RB4848656275 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE515152512110 OF 21 GRADED
OL535359762011 OF 20 GRADED
DL646467791912 OF 19 GRADED
LB60606843149 OF 14 GRADED
DB55557876189 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE54th54
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%58
RECRUITING CLASS#44 · 6/21 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 16 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LOUJEFF BROHM4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
6262
PASS RATE
7575
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PITTPAT NARDUZZI11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
PACE
3333
PASS RATE
8080
EXPLOSIVENESS
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPITT OFFENSELOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
52
RET
92
NATIONAL
24OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSELOUISVILLE DEFENSE
PITT QUARTERBACKSn=68% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MASON HEINTSCHELQBRET
562ND YR7477★3+15
HOLDEN GERINERQBPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
474TH YR2917★3—
COREY DAILEYQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—86★4—
ANGELO RENDAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—58★3—
BEAU JACKSONQBRET
351ST YR—24★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6458%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
5288%44%
SECONDARYDB
6827%26%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
59
PERF
53
RET
76
DL
23OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
53OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE
PITT OFFENSIVE LINEn=2024% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KENDALL STANLEYOLRET
644TH YR—64★3-20 2025
RYAN CARRETTAOLRET
563RD YR—70★3+38 2025
BJ WILLIAMSOLRET
544TH YR—58★3+17 2025
KEITH GOUVEIAOLRET
514TH YR—64★3+46 2025
JORDAN FIELDSOLRET
501ST YR—74★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CLEV LUBINDLRET
834TH YR9278★3+49
JEROD SMITH IIDLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
583RD YR—64★3-7 2025
MICAH CARTERDLRET
553RD YR4364★3—
AJ GREENDLRET
543RD YR7595★4+36
DAYLEN RUSSELLDLPORTAL · MIAMI
521ST YR2845★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
91OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
48
RET
62
DL
23OF 138
DL RET
58
LB
53OF 138
LB RET
88
FRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE
PITT RUNNING BACKSn=738% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'KYRIAN TURNERRBRET
512ND YR7757★3-3
DAMON FERGUSON JR.RBTRUE FR
501ST YR1692★4—
JUSTIN COOKRBRET
504TH YR22—UNR+36
LA'VELL WRIGHTRBPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
494TH YR7445★3+7
JAYLIN BROWNRBRET
381ST YR160★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556458%18%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455288%44%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPITTSBURGH OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
51
RET
51
DB
10OF 138
DB RET
27
SECONDARYLOUISVILLE DEFENSE
PITT PASS CATCHERSn=2149% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE YATESWRRET
532ND YR4067★3+37
CARSON KENTTEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
504TH YR7078★3+19
MALIK KNIGHTWRPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
504TH YR—17★3—
TYREEK ROBINSONWRRET
502ND YR2359★3—
TONY KINSLERWRRET
482ND YR—76★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KOEN ENTRINGERDBPORTAL · IOWA
853RD YR9189★3+28
DJ WALLER JR.CBPORTAL · KENTUCKY
523RD YR6464★3-31
TAYON HOLLOWAYDBRET
514TH YR—78★3-3 2025
JABARI MACKDBRET
494TH YR9928★3-6
ANTONIO WATTSDBRET
494TH YR9839★3+29
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
43.9
48.3
— OFFENSE
57.5
54.3
— DEFENSE
30.2
42.3
SP+ OVERALL
10.0
14.1
FPI
11.6
11.9
ELO
1678
1668
TALENT
675
740
PRODUCTION
71
81
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−7
−10
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
OFF EFFICIENCY
27
73
DEF EFFICIENCY
92
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
29
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
19
75
FINISHING DRIVES
51
36
FIELD POSITION
4
8
TURNOVER MARGIN
46
71
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
PASS RATE
52.0%
45.8%
PACE
24.7s
27.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
58.6%
60.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
74.5%
62.9%
PLAYS / GAME
73.0
65.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.0%
4.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PITT, ORANGE = LOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE