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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›SMU @ ND›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SMU
NOTRE DAME
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 19:30 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#16AP
26FPI
SMUACCSMU
2-1
78
76
71
57%
56
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#3AP
4FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
3-0
96
87
88
51%
41
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SMU76CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
93
TEMPO
56
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE93p
93
TEMPO56p
56
ND36CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
20
PROE
47
TEMPO
41
EXPLOSIVE20p
20
PROE47p
47
TEMPO41p
41
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSMUNOTRE DAME2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB87%T.J. HardenRB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris Johnson Jr.PORTAL · CLEMSON · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%Isaiah SmithDE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron RobertsonDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry WebbDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE70%Matthew HibnerDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello BrinsonWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan HudsonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB56%Ahmaad MosesS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce HarmonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah NwokobiaS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Savion ByrdOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan ParrOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB31%Zakye BarkerPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MedlockPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ WarnerPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKendrick Raphael · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAChristian Rhodes · SIGNEE ★4EJ Kelly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLMarques White · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTSHudson Woods · SIGNEE ★3Amontre Harris · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEYannick Smith · PORTAL ★4 · EAST CAROLINATheo Melin Ohrstrom · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MRandy Pittman Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJayvon Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MDeuce Gilbert · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDrew Evers · SIGNEE ★4Evan Goodwin · SIGNEE ★4Sam Utu · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKenneth Goodwin III · SIGNEE ★3I'Zayah Young · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SMU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.867 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.576 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.458 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353461005CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB49499596CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE6262833223CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL636387019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL4444651519CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB6060656910CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB5050584318CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE78th78
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%82
RECRUITING CLASS#32 · 6/21 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND+75 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 15 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
1616
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSMU OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
73OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
53
RET
100
NATIONAL
5OF 136
RET
52
FULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE
SMU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEVIN JENNINGSQBRET
594TH YR9740★3+19
TY HAWKINSQBRET
491ST YR—90★4—
CHARLIE FISERQBRET
364TH YR——UNR—
COLE LEINARTQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—37★3—
MABREY METTAUERQBPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
442ND YR—84★3-15 2025
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7059%50%
LINEBACKERSLB
62100%55%
SECONDARYDB
6376%61%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
63
RET
0
DL
12OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
SMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSHUA BATESOLRET
713RD YR—89★3+30 2025
ADDISON NICHOLSOLRET
694TH YR—85★3+42 2025
PJ WILLIAMSOLRET
654TH YR—89★3+3 2025
GRAHAM UTEROLRET
522ND YR—52★3—
ALEX WOODSOLRET
503RD YR—60★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BOUBACAR TRAOREDLRET
863RD YR7892★4+35
FRANCIS BREWUDLPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
793RD YR8299★4+10
JASON ONYEDLRET
664TH YR7874★3+19
ELIJAH HUGHESDLRET
554TH YR—28★3-2 2025
BRYCE YOUNGDLRET
543RD YR8197★4+30
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
49
RET
9
DL
12OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
22OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
SMU RUNNING BACKSn=691% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DRAMEKCO GREENRBRET
501ST YR3885★4-53
KENDRICK RAPHAELRBPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
494TH YR9897★4-32
WILLIAM FIERRORBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
LINK RHODESRBRET
494TH YR——UNR—
CHRISTIAN RHODESRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—94★4—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557059%50%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4562100%55%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
83
PERF
62
RET
32
DB
16OF 138
DB RET
76
SECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE
SMU PASS CATCHERSn=2368% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
YAMIR KNIGHTWRRET
674TH YR9664★3+21
YANNICK SMITHWRPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
643RD YR9097★4+22
RANDY PITTMANTETRUE FR
634TH YR9274★3+20
THEO MELIN OHRSTROMTEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
584TH YR—92★4+38 2025
DERRICK MCFALLWRRET
552ND YR4285★4+25
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ADON SHULERSRET
843RD YR9888★4+17
BRAUNTAE JOHNSONSRET
822ND YR7792★4+55
LEONARD MOORECBRET
643RD YR9686★4+3
LUKE TALICHSRET
584TH YR6071★3+39
DJ MCKINNEYCBPORTAL · COLORADO
574TH YR—95★4-9 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 2025
61.2
50.5
— OFFENSE 2025
64.2
47.5
— DEFENSE 2025
58.1
53.5
SP+ OVERALL
15.3
29.0
FPI
12.2
26.8
ELO
1706
2061
TALENT
765
953
PRODUCTION
82
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.31
0.69
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
OFF EFFICIENCY
61
83
DEF EFFICIENCY
67
90
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
93
100
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
67
54
FINISHING DRIVES
85
87
FIELD POSITION
81
7
TURNOVER MARGIN
75
98
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
PASS RATE
53.0%
45.6%
PACE
27.3s
28.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
55.5%
57.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.9%
55.8%
PLAYS / GAME
66.0
63.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.5%
3.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SMU, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE