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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›SYR @ BC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SYRACUSE
BOSTON COLLEGE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ALUMNI STADIUM (CHESTNUT HILL, MA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
64FPI
SYRACCSYRACUSE
1-2
75
50
75
35%
97
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
91FPI
BCACCBOSTON COLLEGE
2-1
49
59
35
16%
31
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SYR71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
77
PROE
38
TEMPO
97
EXPLOSIVE77p
77
PROE38p
38
TEMPO97p
97
BC52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
92
TEMPO
31
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE92p
92
TEMPO31p
31
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SYRRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.8
SYRACUSE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSYRACUSEBOSTON COLLEGE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB91%Will NixonRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYasin WillisPORTAL · KANSAS · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HartPORTAL · UCONN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL81%David ReeseDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin Jobity Jr.DL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion Wilson Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Dan VillariTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell Gill Jr.PORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohntay Cook IIPORTAL · OLE MISS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Da'Metrius WeatherspoonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ FergusonOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin CollinsOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB48%Rickie CollinsPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB35%Duce ChestnutDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin GrantDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBerry Buxton IIIDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Anwar SparrowLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames Heard Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJu'Juan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · LSUShavane Anderson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDillan Fontus · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDKamron Wilson · SIGNEE ★4Jarius Rodgers · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMatt Outten · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEMichael Smith · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINACalvin Russell III · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLOluwafunto Akinshilo · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJaveion Cooper · SIGNEE ★3Joseph White · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBZaid Lott · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBTedarius Hughes · SIGNEE ★4Chase Geter · SIGNEE ★3Terrance Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBGemaus Sackie · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SYRACUSE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.566 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.147 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.775 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4848818673 OF 7 GRADED
RB4848637264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE5151612021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL4747471423CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL48486541157 OF 15 GRADED
LB53535954129 OF 12 GRADED
DB62626388229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE75th75
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%71
RECRUITING CLASS#35 · 4/26 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 19 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
6565
PASS RATE
5454
EXPLOSIVENESS
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HAVOC
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SYRFRAN BROWN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
9494
PASS RATE
9090
EXPLOSIVENESS
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSYR OFFENSEBC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
89OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
48
RET
86
NATIONAL
89OF 136
RET
35
FULL DEFENSEBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
SYR QUARTERBACKSn=714% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AMARI ODOMQBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
533RD YR6764★3+34
STEVE ANGELIQBRET
504TH YR6485★3+25
MALACHI NELSONQBPORTAL · UTEP
433RD YR6145★3-48 2025
JOSEPH FILARDIQBRET
422ND YR——UNR-53 2025
DANNY LAUTERQBPORTAL · GEORGETOWN
373RD YR—28★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3945%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
2420%0%
SECONDARYDB
4994%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
47
RET
14
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
135OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
SYR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2386% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREVION MACKOLRET
503RD YR—36★3-29 2025
NAQUIL BETRANDOLRET
553RD YR—64★3+2 2025
JOE CRUZOLRET
524TH YR—32★3+36 2025
JAYDEN MANNOLRET
521ST YR—66★3—
BYRON WASHINGTONOLRET
512ND YR—63★3-14 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KJ SAMPSONDLPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
633RD YR6164★3—
KRIS JONESDEPORTAL · GEORGIA
532ND YR4578★3—
ONYE NWOSISIDLRET
524TH YR—45★3—
CHRISTIAN HUDSONDLPORTAL · COLORADO
512ND YR2445★3—
JUSTIN MEDLOCKLBPORTAL · SMU
514TH YR—45★3-22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
48
RET
72
DL
110OF 138
DL RET
45
LB
135OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
SYR RUNNING BACKSn=628% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLIK HILLRBRET
522ND YR3762★3+12
SHAVANE ANDERSON JR.RBTRUE FR
521ST YR—66★3+37
MALACHI COLEMANRBRET
491ST YR2167★3-55
DAVION KERRRBRET
492ND YR1446★3—
JU'JUAN JOHNSONRBPORTAL · LSU
443RD YR—78★3-44 2025
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS66% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553945%22%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452420%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESYRACUSE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
63OF 138
TAL
61
PERF
51
RET
20
DB
87OF 138
DB RET
94
SECONDARYBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE
SYR PASS CATCHERSn=2180% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTUS ROSS-SIMMONSWRRET
564TH YR——★3+27 2025
COLE WEAVERWRPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
553RD YR8664★3+6
DAVID CLEMENTTERET
514TH YR2650★3—
DAUNTE BACHEYIETERET
502ND YR2465★3—
NOAH MEYERSTEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
483RD YR8145★3+8
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM6% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER DAVISDBRET
853RD YR9462★3+10
KP PRICEDBRET
704TH YR9956★3+31
TJ GREENDBRET
522ND YR6164★3-24
ASHTON CUNNINGHAMDBRET
512ND YR4665★3—
MARCUS UPTONDBRET
492ND YR4675★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.7
37.3
— OFFENSE
53.1
44.6
— DEFENSE
48.3
30.0
SP+ OVERALL
1.7
-3.3
FPI
0.6
-5.8
ELO
1290
1379
TALENT
746
660
PRODUCTION
45
41
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+25
+17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.21
0.07
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
OFF EFFICIENCY
19
56
DEF EFFICIENCY
13
34
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
20
38
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
24
9
FINISHING DRIVES
25
17
FIELD POSITION
81
81
TURNOVER MARGIN
12
18
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
PASS RATE
53.3%
46.0%
PACE
23.4s
28.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
56.8%
66.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
73.7%
71.7%
PLAYS / GAME
77.0
62.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.3%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SYR, ORANGE = BC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE