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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›ORE @ MSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OREGON
MICHIGAN STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 20:00 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#6AP
13FPI
OREB1GOREGON
1-1
99
90
94
75%
35
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
53FPI
MSUB1GMICHIGAN STATE
2-0
56
64
49
21%
92
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ORE65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
62
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE62p
62
TEMPO35p
35
MSU63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
68
TEMPO
92
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE68p
68
TEMPO92p
92
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGONMICHIGAN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE59%Kenyon SadiqDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik BensonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGary Bryant Jr.WR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Noah WhittingtonRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden LimarPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay HarrisPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Emmanuel PregnonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HarkeyDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WorldOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Dillon ThienemanDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadon CanadyDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTheran JohnsonDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Blake PurchasePORTAL · OLE MISS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrance GreenPORTAL · ALABAMA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshton PorterPORTAL · HOUSTON · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB24%Bryce BoettcherDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Luke MogaPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEIverson Hooks · PORTAL ★3 · UABJalen Lott · SIGNEE ★5Kendre Harrison · SIGNEE ★51 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBSimeon Price · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOTradarian Ball · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Smith · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLImmanuel Iheanacho · SIGNEE ★5Tommy Tofi · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBKoi Perich · PORTAL ★4 · MINNESOTAAaron Scott Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEJett Washington · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLD'Antre Robinson · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAAnthony Jones Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Tony Cumberland · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBraylon Hodge · SIGNEE ★4Tristan Phillips · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBDylan Raiola · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKABryson Beaver · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.294 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.184 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.591 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB727210010061 OF 6 GRADED
RB68689410082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE77779774226 OF 22 GRADED
OL77778585208 OF 20 GRADED
DL5656939695 OF 9 GRADED
LB545490100197 OF 19 GRADED
DB68689664228 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO62%95
RECRUITING CLASS#3 · 18/25 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 13 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUPAT FITZGERALDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1919
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
4848
EXPLOSIVENESS
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HAVOC
44
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORE OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
72
RET
100
NATIONAL
72OF 136
RET
3
FULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ORE QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DANTE MOOREQBRET
683RD YR87100★4+27
BROCK THOMASQBRET
503RD YR—34★3—
DYLAN RAIOLAQBPORTAL · NEBRASKA
493RD YR—99★4+24 2025
AKILI SMITH JR.QBRET
471ST YR—93★4—
RYDER HAYESQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
4475%22%
SECONDARYDB
6020%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
5OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
77
RET
85
DL
76OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
83OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ORE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2015% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SOLOMON KROEKEROLTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
IAPANI LALOULUOLRET
874TH YR—87★4+40 2025
DAVE IULIOLRET
784TH YR—93★4+43 2025
GERNORRIS WILSONOLRET
533RD YR—86★4—
ZIYARE ADDISONOLRET
521ST YR—95★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS44% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DION CRAWFORDLBPORTAL · BUFFALO
644TH YR—45★3-8 2025
JORDAN HALLLBRET
624TH YR9794★4-1
KENNY SOARES JR.EDGEPORTAL · NC STATE
614TH YR9564★3+49
BEN ROBERTSDLRET
544TH YR6528★3-36
ANELU LAFAELEEDGERET
532ND YR3885★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 138
TAL
94
PERF
68
RET
100
DL
76OF 138
DL RET
43
LB
83OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ORE RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDON DAVISONRBRET
882ND YR7193★4+35
DIERRE HILL JR.RBRET
682ND YR5994★4+37
DA'JAUN RIGGSRBRET
502ND YR—77★3+25 2025
SIMEON PRICERBPORTAL · COLORADO
494TH YR—85★3-18 2025
TRADARIAN BALLRBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554843%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454475%22%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
77
RET
74
DB
27OF 138
DB RET
20
SECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
ORE PASS CATCHERSn=2226% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH MCCLELLANWRRET
632ND YR7197★4+24
JAMARI JOHNSONTERET
583RD YR7692★4+46
DAKORIEN MOOREWRRET
582ND YR66100★5+10
EVAN STEWARTWRRET
544TH YR100100★5-7
ANDREW OLESHTEPORTAL · PENN STATE
411ST YR—78★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM80% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHARLES BRANTLEYCBPORTAL · MIAMI
664TH YR9678★3-15
KHALIL MAJEEDSRET
534TH YR56—UNR+13
DEVIN VAUGHTSPORTAL · MAINE
523RD YR1628★3—
TYRAN CHAPPELLCBPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
522ND YR928★3—
TRE BELLCBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
504TH YR7978★3-4
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
57.3
46.4
— OFFENSE
62.9
47.1
— DEFENSE
51.6
45.6
SP+ OVERALL
22.9
3.5
FPI
17.1
3.5
ELO
1811
1528
TALENT
984
685
PRODUCTION
99
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−6
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.62
0.16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
89
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
89
19
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
58
80
FINISHING DRIVES
90
35
FIELD POSITION
18
87
TURNOVER MARGIN
88
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
PASS RATE
59.7%
42.1%
PACE
29.0s
23.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
49.4%
66.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
76.7%
67.6%
PLAYS / GAME
62.0
76.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORE, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE