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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›OSU @ NEB›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OHIO STATE
NEBRASKA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (LINCOLN, NE)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#6AP
1FPI
OSUB1GOHIO STATE
2-1
97
96
99
68%
59
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
21FPI
NEBB1GNEBRASKA
3-0
85
73
73
46%
79
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
OSU74CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
80
TEMPO
59
EXPLOSIVE82p
82
PROE80p
80
TEMPO59p
59
NEB82CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
70
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE70p
70
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
OSURECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.9-0.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+36.0
OHIO STATE won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEBRECORD MATCHES
3-0ACTUALvs2.9-0.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+34.7
NEBRASKA won 3 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIO STATENEBRASKA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB76%Sonny StylesDRAFTED · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArvell ReeseDRAFTED · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE58%Will KacmarekDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax KlareDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarnell TateDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Caleb DownsDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavison IgbinosunDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLorenzo Styles Jr.DRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Caden CurryDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKayden McDonaldDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTywone Malone Jr.DT · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB47%CJ DonaldsonRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames PeoplesPORTAL · PENN STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL18%Tegra TshabolaOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB4%Lincoln KienholzPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBCincere Johnson · SIGNEE ★5Braxton Rembert · SIGNEE ★4Simeon Caldwell · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEHunter Welcing · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHWESTERNChris Henry Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Jerquaden Guilford · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBTerry Moore · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEEarl Little Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEDominick Kelly · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJames Smith · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAQua Russaw · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAKhary Wilder · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBFavour Akih · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLSam Greer · SIGNEE ★4Max Riley · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.278 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.092 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.757 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7777978463 OF 6 GRADED
RB6565885874 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE686886422316 OF 23 GRADED
OL7575921001910 OF 19 GRADED
DL727293671817 OF 18 GRADED
LB787889681411 OF 14 GRADED
DB717194432311 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE97th97
BLUE-CHIP RATIO69%97
RECRUITING CLASS#4 · 18/30 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 17 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEBMATT RHULE4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
3838
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HAVOC
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OSURYAN DAY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
5353
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOSU OFFENSENEB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
6OF 138
TAL
97
PERF
77
RET
84
NATIONAL
38OF 136
RET
62
FULL DEFENSENEBRASKA DEFENSE
OSU QUARTERBACKSn=616% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JULIAN SAYINQBRET
913RD YR79100★5+25
TAVIEN ST. CLAIRQBRET
512ND YR20100★5—
LUKE FAHEYQBTRUE FR
451ST YR1582★3—
JUSTYN MARTINQBPORTAL · MARYLAND
504TH YR—64★3+34 2025
BRADY GEIBELQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS36% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4950%38%
LINEBACKERSLB
5261%14%
SECONDARYDB
6272%19%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
75
RET
100
DL
73OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
54OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7NEBRASKA DEFENSE
OSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=190% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AUSTIN SIEREVELDOLRET
844TH YR9089★4+8
CARSON HINZMANOLRET
754TH YR9894★4+13
LUKE MONTGOMERYOLRET
704TH YR8696★4+19
PHILLIP DANIELSOLRET
694TH YR8595★4-15
GABE VANSICKLEOLRET
563RD YR5490★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
OWEN CHAMBLISSLBPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE
714TH YR9378★3-4
CAMERON LENHARDTEDGERET
614TH YR8989★4+8
JAHSEAR WHITTINGTONDTPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
563RD YR6664★3+17
KADE PIETRZAKEDGERET
532ND YR6487★4+12
DEXTER FOSTERLBPORTAL · OREGON STATE
523RD YR8845★3+18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
17OF 138
TAL
88
PERF
65
RET
58
DL
73OF 138
DL RET
50
LB
54OF 138
LB RET
61
FRONT-7NEBRASKA DEFENSE
OSU RUNNING BACKSn=742% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BO JACKSONRBRET
742ND YR8594★4+19
JA'KOBI JACKSONRBPORTAL · FLORIDA
584TH YR7785★3+27
LEGEND BEYRBTRUE FR
521ST YR2296★4—
ISAIAH WESTRBRET
492ND YR5977★3-14
FAVOUR AKIHRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—89★4—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554950%38%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455261%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
15OF 138
TAL
86
PERF
68
RET
42
DB
20OF 138
DB RET
72
SECONDARYNEBRASKA DEFENSE
OSU PASS CATCHERSn=2358% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH SMITHWRRET
953RD YR98100★3+17
DEVIN MCCUINWRPORTAL · UTSA
654TH YR9864★3+28
CHRIS HENRY JR.WRTRUE FR
521ST YR34100★5—
BROCK BOYDWRTRUE FR
521ST YR2179★3—
MASON WILLIAMSTEPORTAL · OHIO
514TH YR8445★3+25
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM28% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANDREW MARSHALLCBRET
834TH YR8589★3-1
VICTOR EVANS IIICBPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
824TH YR8345★3-16
REX GUTHRIESRET
613RD YR7953★3-22
DWAYNE MCDOUGLE IIISTRUE FR
574TH YR8678★3+51
MARIO BUFORDCBRET
523RD YR4687★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.8
51.4
— OFFENSE
58.4
58.9
— DEFENSE
43.1
44.0
SP+ OVERALL
29.2
13.0
FPI
28.1
14.2
ELO
2032
1715
TALENT
964
787
PRODUCTION
99
81
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−2
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.69
0.31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
OFF EFFICIENCY
83
85
DEF EFFICIENCY
88
82
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
82
97
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
85
16
FINISHING DRIVES
77
95
FIELD POSITION
17
58
TURNOVER MARGIN
71
61
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
PASS RATE
50.5%
44.3%
PACE
27.0s
25.7s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
37%
38%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.3%
60.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
80.0%
58.2%
PLAYS / GAME
66.7
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.0%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OSU, ORANGE = NEB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE