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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›WIS @ PUR›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WISCONSIN
PURDUE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|ROSS-ADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
56FPI
WISB1GWISCONSIN
1-1
79
29
81
31%
17
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
70FPI
PURB1GPURDUE
1-1
61
70
56
48%
94
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WIS38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
12
TEMPO
17
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE12p
12
TEMPO17p
17
PUR59CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
26
PROE
56
TEMPO
94
EXPLOSIVE26p
26
PROE56p
56
TEMPO94p
94
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WISRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
WISCONSIN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PURRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-13.1
PURDUE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWISCONSINPURDUE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL88%Ben BartenDL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJay'viar SuggsDL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon LaneDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB77%Ricardo HallmanCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin BrownS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeimere Latimer IIPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE75%Lance MasonTE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVinny Anthony IIWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrech KekahunaPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL66%Riley MahlmanOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe BrunnerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavis HeinzenOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB63%Dilin JonesPORTAL · LSU · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGideon ItukaRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade YacamelliPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB56%Mason ReigerLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian AlliegroPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarryl PetersonLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB45%Hunter SimmonsQB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBilly Edwards Jr.PORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLJustus Boone · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASJunior Poyser · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALOLiam Danitz · PORTAL ★3 · HOPE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMarvin Burks Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIBryce West · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATECarsen Eloms · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEShamar Rigby · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJacob Harris · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENZion Kearney · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAustin Kawecki · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEStylz Blackmon · PORTAL ★3 · AUGUSTANABrady Bekkenhuis · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBAbu Sama III · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEREFILLED
LBBen Wenzel · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBColton Joseph · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONRyan Hopkins · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WISCONSIN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.822 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
30.333 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
29.620 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB383878051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858852182 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4646742424CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL525281019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL73737350124 OF 12 GRADED
LB75758389228 OF 22 GRADED
DB48486540195 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE79th79
BLUE-CHIP RATIO29%79
RECRUITING CLASS#78 · 1/14 BC42
CLASS RANK TREND-55 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PURBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
PACE
4646
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
7171
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WISLUKE FICKELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
5353
EXPLOSIVENESS
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HAVOC
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWIS OFFENSEPUR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
78
PERF
38
RET
0
NATIONAL
86OF 136
RET
35
FULL DEFENSEPURDUE DEFENSE
WIS QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
COLTON JOSEPHQBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
613RD YR8378★3+16
RYAN HOPKINSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—79★3—
DEUCE ADAMSQBPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
492ND YR—45★3—
CARTER SMITHQBRET
461ST YR—90★4-35 2025
DANNY O'NEILQBRET
453RD YR—64★3+20 2025
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS71% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5940%9%
LINEBACKERSLB
7245%10%
SECONDARYDB
5519%8%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
74OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
52
RET
0
DL
34OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
11OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE
WIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EMERSON MANDELLOLRET
672ND YR—93★4-12 2025
PJ WILKINSOLPORTAL · OLE MISS
533RD YR—64★3+13 2025
BARRETT NELSONOLRET
524TH YR—80★3—
LUCAS SIMMONS-JOHANSSONOLTRUE FR
523RD YR—45★3—
BLAKE CHERRYOLPORTAL · ARKANSAS
492ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CURT NEALDLPORTAL · ILLINOIS
594TH YR9164★3-14
CHARLES CORREALBRET
593RD YR8945★3+5
BREEON ISHMAILDERET
563RD YR6364★3+19
RODNEY LORADLPORTAL · UCF
553RD YR6164★3-32
TJ LINDSEYDLRET
542ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
37OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
58
RET
21
DL
34OF 138
DL RET
40
LB
11OF 138
LB RET
45
FRONT-7PURDUE DEFENSE
WIS RUNNING BACKSn=879% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ABU SAMA IIIRBPORTAL · IOWA STATE
584TH YR9785★3+8
NATE PALMERRBPORTAL · TCU
522ND YR—45★3-8 2025
BRYAN JACKSON IIRBTRUE FR
483RD YR—64★3-14 2025
DARRION DUPREERBRET
453RD YR7987★4-16
MASON LANERBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555940%9%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.457245%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWISCONSIN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
46
RET
24
DB
49OF 138
DB RET
19
SECONDARYPURDUE DEFENSE
WIS PASS CATCHERSn=2476% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRANT STECTERET
542ND YR3590★4—
EUGENE HILTON JR.WRRET
492ND YR4183★3-13
JACOB HARRISTEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
483RD YR5678★30
CHRIS BROOKS JR.WRRET
464TH YR5339★3+19
TYRELL HENRYWRRET
464TH YR6985★3-33
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PUR SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM81% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DON SAUNDERSDBPORTAL · UTAH
584TH YR5164★3+0
JUSTIN DENSONDBTRUE FR
582ND YR5245★3+62
JADEN MANGHAMDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
494TH YR9478★3+2
DEE NEWSOMEDBPORTAL · SAMFORD
483RD YR—45★3—
MISTER CLARKDBPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
473RD YR8528★3+5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.8
48.1
— OFFENSE
39.9
54.5
— DEFENSE
41.6
41.7
SP+ OVERALL
1.9
-1.2
FPI
2.6
-0.4
ELO
1455
1326
TALENT
768
698
PRODUCTION
61
44
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+20
+22
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.29
0.14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
OFF EFFICIENCY
11
47
DEF EFFICIENCY
16
6
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
25
44
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
93
55
FINISHING DRIVES
1
17
FIELD POSITION
66
83
TURNOVER MARGIN
2
15
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PUR
PASS RATE
46.9%
52.3%
PACE
31.9s
23.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
58.7%
53.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
57.9%
72.2%
PLAYS / GAME
56.5
77.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WIS, ORANGE = PUR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE