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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›IU @ WASH›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
INDIANA
WASHINGTON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|HUSKY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#4AP
5FPI
IUB1GINDIANA
3-0
73
97
97
17%
11
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
47FPI
WASHB1GWASHINGTON
3-0
83
91
76
54%
54
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IU50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
43
TEMPO
11
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE43p
43
TEMPO11p
11
WASH43CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
23
PROE
53
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE23p
23
PROE53p
53
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
IURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.1
INDIANA won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WASHRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
WASHINGTON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERINDIANAWASHINGTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Fernando MendozaDRAFTED · 94% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlberto MendozaPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE90%Riley NowakowskiDRAFTED · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmar Cooper Jr.DRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah SarrattDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB84%Roman HembyRB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaelon BlackDRAFTED · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB53%D'Angelo PondsDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLouis MooreDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevan BoykinDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL47%Mikail KamaraDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHosea WheelerPORTAL · BAYLOR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominique RatcliffDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL41%Pat CooganDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKahlil BensonOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZen MichalskiOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB33%Aiden FisherDRAFTED · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJosh Hoover · PORTAL ★4 · TCUREFILLED
WR/TENick Marsh · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATEShazz Preston · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEParker Elmore · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBTurbo Richard · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEPARTIAL
DBA.J. Harris · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEKasmir Hicks · SIGNEE ★4D'Montae Tims · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLTobi Osunsanmi · PORTAL ★4 · KANSAS STATEJoshua Burnham · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEGabe Hill · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJoe Brunner · PORTAL ★4 · WISCONSINBen Novak · SIGNEE ★3Sam Simpson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJa'Dyn Williams · SIGNEE ★4Trevor Gibbs · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Savage · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · INDIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.672 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.252 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.682 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB696998051 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464604452 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE79797539208 OF 20 GRADED
OL71716379169 OF 16 GRADED
DL828263491910 OF 19 GRADED
LB76766192117 OF 11 GRADED
DB757574741911 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE73rd73
BLUE-CHIP RATIO23%73
RECRUITING CLASS#29 · 7/23 BC79
CLASS RANK TREND+36 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 17 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WASHJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IUCURT CIGNETTI3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIU OFFENSEWASH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
19OF 138
TAL
98
PERF
69
RET
0
NATIONAL
20OF 136
RET
21
FULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON DEFENSE
IU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSH HOOVERQBPORTAL · TCU
674TH YR9998★4+20
TYLER CHERRYQBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
GRANT WILSONQBRET
444TH YR7728★3-22
JACOB BELLQBRET
351ST YR—39★3—
MAVERICK GESKEQBRET
321ST YR—9★2—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4828%16%
LINEBACKERSLB
47100%14%
SECONDARYDB
6863%31%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
10OF 138
TAL
63
PERF
71
RET
79
DL
82OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
72OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE
IU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1621% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CARTER SMITHOLRET
854TH YR—85★3+0 2025
DREW EVANSOLRET
714TH YR—2★2+33 2025
ADEDAMOLA AJANIOLRET
582ND YR—70★3-3 2025
BRAY LYNCHOLRET
584TH YR—61★3+13 2025
JOE BRUNNEROLPORTAL · WISCONSIN
574TH YR—98★4+21 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACOB MANULBRET
624TH YR10064★3+25
ELINNEUS DAVISDLRET
553RD YR7668★3-34
RUSSELL DAVIS IIEDGERET
554TH YR7278★3+35
TAARIQ AL-UQDAHLBRET
524TH YR9545★3+18
LOGAN GEORGEEDGEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
523RD YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
22OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
64
RET
44
DL
82OF 138
DL RET
28
LB
72OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE
IU RUNNING BACKSn=556% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEE BEEBE JR.RBRET
614TH YR9328★3+16
TURBO RICHARDRBPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
503RD YR8685★3-7
SEAN CUONORBRET
411ST YR—75★3—
JAYREON CAMPBELLRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—71★3—
KHOBIE MARTINRBRET
562ND YR—55★3+30 2025
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554828%16%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4547100%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
1OF 138
TAL
75
PERF
79
RET
39
DB
9OF 138
DB RET
63
SECONDARYWASHINGTON DEFENSE
IU PASS CATCHERSn=2061% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAZZ PRESTONWRPORTAL · TULANE
694TH YR7989★3+26
CHARLIE BECKERWRRET
683RD YR6070★3+38
NICK MARSHWRPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
603RD YR9699★4+9
DAVION CHANDLERWRRET
522ND YR1179★3—
BROCK SCHOTTTEPORTAL · MIAMI
501ST YR878★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEX MCLAUGHLINSRET
894TH YR8678★3+16
RYLON DILLARD-ALLENSRET
682ND YR6593★4+45
DYLAN ROBINSONCBRET
622ND YR6494★4-11
RAHSHAWN CLARKSRET
492ND YR6582★3+23
JERON JONESCBTRUE FR
481ST YR—85★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
50.0
56.3
— OFFENSE
63.3
62.1
— DEFENSE
36.7
50.5
SP+ OVERALL
25.4
11.1
FPI
24.6
5.8
ELO
2121
1752
TALENT
735
778
PRODUCTION
97
88
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−47
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.23
0.30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
OFF EFFICIENCY
98
93
DEF EFFICIENCY
96
79
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
46
61
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
15
65
FINISHING DRIVES
98
92
FIELD POSITION
21
55
TURNOVER MARGIN
100
61
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
PASS RATE
34.5%
57.9%
PACE
31.6s
27.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
71.9%
47.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
75.0%
PLAYS / GAME
57.0
65.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
7.6%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IU, ORANGE = WASH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE