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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›WSU @ TXST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WASHINGTON STATE
TEXAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 18:00 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
99FPI
WSUPACWASHINGTON STATE
0-2
42
33
70
91%
4
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
102FPI
TXSTPACTEXAS STATE
0-2
41
75
14
76%
79
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WSU25CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
17
PROE
54
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE17p
17
PROE54p
54
TEMPO4p
4
TXST38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
14
PROE
20
TEMPO
79
EXPLOSIVE14p
14
PROE20p
20
TEMPO79p
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.4
WASHINGTON STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
TEXAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTON STATETEXAS STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Zevi EckhausQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxon PotterQB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB93%Tucker LargeS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColby HumphreyCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamorri ColsonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB93%Caleb FranclLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker McKennaLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony PalanoPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL90%Bryson LambPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac TerrellPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuddha PeletiDE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE60%Joshua MeredithWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdemola FaleyeTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah NogaWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%AJ VaipuluOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock DieuOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian HilbornOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB22%Angel JohnsonRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCaden Pinnick · PORTAL ★3 · UC DAVISREFILLED
DBJalil Tucker · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEJack Bal · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEJshawn Frausto-Ramos · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNylan Brown · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEPARTIAL
DLLinus Zunk · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTEduwa Okundaye · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONADamarjhe Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · SMU2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETank Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJack Pedersen · PORTAL ★3 · UCLADaniel Blood · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKalolo Ta'aga · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHMaximus McCree · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONREFILLED
RBMarquez Wimberly · SIGNEE ★3CJ Toney · SIGNEE ★3Tremayne Hill · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.111 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.660 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
8.03 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB676745041 OF 4 GRADED
RB50503510073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE494954820CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL373733018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL626244312110 OF 21 GRADED
LB4646430104 OF 10 GRADED
DB62624525198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%56
RECRUITING CLASS#128 · 0/11 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-66 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 28 IN / 41 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
PACE
9393
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WSUKIRBY MOOREFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWSU OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
23OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
67
RET
0
NATIONAL
104OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE
WSU QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADEN PINNICKQBTRUE FR
492ND YR—45★3+12
JULIAN DUGGERQBRET
512ND YR—64★3—
OWEN ESHELMANQBRET
351ST YR—68★3—
GAVIN GRAYQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4854%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
4071%10%
SECONDARYDB
4865%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
116OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
37
RET
0
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
54
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
WSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KALOLO TA'AGAOLPORTAL · UTAH
522ND YR—45★3—
JAYLIN CALDWELLOLRET
524TH YR—45★3—
KYLE MARTINOLRET
473RD YR—22★3-14 2025
ASHTON TRIPPOLRET
463RD YR—44★3-27 2025
JONNY LESTEROLRET
464TH YR—13★2-28 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREYLIN PAYNELBRET
614TH YR9345★3-4
JAVANTE MACKEYLBPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE
583RD YR8945★3-35
TAE WOODYDLPORTAL · UL MONROE
554TH YR5328★3—
JAYLEN HARRISDLTRUE FR
524TH YR2—UNR—
TJ BURKHALTERLBRET
521ST YR1671★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
50
RET
100
DL
77OF 138
DL RET
54
LB
100OF 138
LB RET
71
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
WSU RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAXWELL WOODSRBRET
602ND YR4417★3+17
LEO PULALASIRBRET
563RD YR7060★3-14
KIRBY VORHEESRBRET
473RD YR7528★3-24
MARQUEZ WIMBERLYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
CJ TONEYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS38% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554854%4%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454071%10%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
75OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
49
RET
8
DB
89OF 138
DB RET
65
SECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE
WSU PASS CATCHERSn=2092% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAU BAKERTERET
562ND YR1664★3—
JACK PEDERSENTEPORTAL · UCLA
514TH YR6364★3-23
DARRIUS CLEMONSWRPORTAL · OREGON STATE
484TH YR6864★3-11
TANK HAWKINSWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
462ND YR4064★3+2
DANIEL BLOODWRPORTAL · MISSOURI
444TH YR5664★3-32
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM35% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TREZ MOOREDBRET
584TH YR7017★3-5
JAYDEN BRADLEYDBRET
521ST YR1652★3—
JAYDEN LAWTONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR251★3—
CRAIG ROYAL JR.DBRET
484TH YR59—UNR+33
RYAN NOLANDBRET
474TH YR9445★2+32
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.9
45.1
— OFFENSE
37.1
54.2
— DEFENSE
34.6
36.0
SP+ OVERALL
-6.9
-6.5
FPI
-7.7
-8.3
ELO
1533
1438
TALENT
630
625
PRODUCTION
37
45
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
−8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
OFF EFFICIENCY
42
79
DEF EFFICIENCY
44
56
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
4
87
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
26
FINISHING DRIVES
63
73
FIELD POSITION
52
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
8
37
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
PASS RATE
48.5%
40.1%
PACE
35.0s
25.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.3%
68.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
72.4%
PLAYS / GAME
51.5
71.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
5.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WSU, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE