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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›SDSU @ BOIS›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAN DIEGO STATE
BOISE STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 21:30 ET|ALBERTSONS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
73FPI
SDSUPACSAN DIEGO STATE
1-1
36
18
89
99%
21
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
36FPI
BOISPACBOISE STATE
1-1
47
39
59
66%
77
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SDSU10CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
1
PROE
7
TEMPO
21
EXPLOSIVE1p
1
PROE7p
7
TEMPO21p
21
BOIS58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
58
PROE
40
TEMPO
77
EXPLOSIVE58p
58
PROE40p
40
TEMPO77p
77
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SDSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs10.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
SAN DIEGO STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.4
BOISE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN DIEGO STATEBOISE STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB92%Owen ChamblissPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey WhiteLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMister WilliamsLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Bryce PhillipsCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDwayne McDougle IIIPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric ButlerS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Christian JonesOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBayo KannikeOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSaipale FuimaonoOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL50%Ryan HendersonPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNiles KingEDGE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BenjaminDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE23%Seth AdamsTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB13%Byron Cardwell Jr.PORTAL · MERCYHURST · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB10%Kyle CrumQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBCameron Cooper · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN COLORADOPARTIAL
DBMike Lindsay · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHO STATECarsten Mamaril · PORTAL ★3 · PORTLAND STATEDareon Edmonds · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLEvan Lawrence · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAJarvis Williams · SIGNEE ★3Brian Borjon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDjibril Rahman · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSGavriel Lightfoot · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAlijah Lash · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJustius Lowe · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONAyo Shotomide-King · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEDerek Stevenson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJosiah Lucas · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBStone Saunders · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN DIEGO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.952 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.794 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.622 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333218342 OF 4 GRADED
RB5757725955 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE434344592317 OF 23 GRADED
OL424236481915 OF 19 GRADED
DL404044541913 OF 19 GRADED
LB52522036106 OF 10 GRADED
DB636339372217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%13
RECRUITING CLASS#83 · 0/21 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND-11 · 3 CYCLES28
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 26 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISSPENCER DANIELSON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SDSUSEAN LEWIS3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
7070
PASS RATE
1212
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HAVOC
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSDSU OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
21
PERF
33
RET
83
NATIONAL
52OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE
SDSU QUARTERBACKSn=417% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STONE SAUNDERSQBPORTAL · KENTUCKY
441ST YR—45★3—
JAYDEN DENEGALQBRET
444TH YR6417★3-1
DRAIDEN TRUDEAUQBRET
351ST YR—32★3—
BRADY CAMPBELLQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5047%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
4386%5%
SECONDARYDB
5164%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
42
RET
48
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
86
FRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE
SDSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1952% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
EVAN LAWRENCEOLPORTAL · INDIANA
522ND YR—78★3—
CAM MAYOLRET
524TH YR—17★3—
KALAN ELLISOLRET
524TH YR—46★3+20 2025
DENNIS JONESOLPORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN
504TH YR——UNR—
CHARLTON LUNIEWSKIOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
502ND YR—62★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN VIRGIN-MORGANLBRET
584TH YR10061★3+22
MICHAEL MADRIEDLRET
553RD YR—53★3-26 2025
LOPEZ SANUSIDLRET
542ND YR5925★3-28
LOGAN BRANTLEYLBPORTAL · KANSAS
523RD YR3628★3—
MANA TUIOTILBRET
522ND YR—52★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
49OF 138
TAL
72
PERF
57
RET
59
DL
67OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
85OF 138
LB RET
86
FRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE
SDSU RUNNING BACKSn=541% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUCKY SUTTONRBRET
674TH YR9478★3+18
JORDIN THOMASRBRET
521ST YR—66★3—
CHRISTIAN WASHINGTONRBRET
494TH YR9464★3-13
JAVION KINNARDRBPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
492ND YR2462★3+35
JOSIAH LUCASRBTRUE FR
401ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555047%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454386%5%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
44
PERF
43
RET
59
DB
69OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE
SDSU PASS CATCHERSn=2341% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON FORDTERET
553RD YR—45★3-35 2025
JORDAN NAPIERWRRET
543RD YR8369★3+35
BERT EMANUEL JR.WRRET
494TH YR—9★3—
PARKER THREATTWRRET
492ND YR—17★3—
JAYLON HAWKINSWRRET
451ST YR—47★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHERROD SMITHDBRET
673RD YR57—UNR+17
JADEN MICKEYDBRET
554TH YR9464★3-5
ROMAN TILLMONDBPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA
513RD YR1564★3—
TRAVIS ANDERSONDBRET
502ND YR4251★3—
JERICO WASHINGTON JR.DBPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
493RD YR9817★3-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.0
34.7
— OFFENSE
52.1
40.6
— DEFENSE
29.9
28.8
SP+ OVERALL
-0.5
6.9
FPI
-1.1
8.2
ELO
1469
1609
TALENT
609
641
PRODUCTION
53
64
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−17
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.04
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
OFF EFFICIENCY
39
36
DEF EFFICIENCY
94
94
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
22
74
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
89
2
FINISHING DRIVES
22
52
FIELD POSITION
12
24
TURNOVER MARGIN
60
78
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SDSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
PASS RATE
35.3%
42.5%
PACE
31.0s
25.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
71.8%
68.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
54.8%
68.3%
PLAYS / GAME
58.0
70.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
6.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SDSU, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE