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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›ODU @ CONN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OLD DOMINION
UCONN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|PRATT & WHITNEY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP36|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
99FPI
ODUSBCOLD DOMINION
1-2
12
55
61
9%
1
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
92FPI
CONNINDUCONN
2-1
47
64
13
2%
37
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ODU41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
96
PROE
24
TEMPO
1
EXPLOSIVE96p
96
PROE24p
24
TEMPO1p
1
CONN71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
91
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE91p
91
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ODURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.4
OLD DOMINION won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CONNRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.1
UCONN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLD DOMINIONUCONN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL96%Maarten WoudsmaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephon Dubose-BourneOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan JoyceOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE90%Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingPORTAL · MARYLAND · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Cory ThomasPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre' BrownWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB87%Colton JosephPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB77%Jeremy Mack Jr.LB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahleel CulbreathPORTAL · UCF · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSeth NaotalaLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB49%Trequan JonesPORTAL · TULSA · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKe'Travion HargroveRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL46%Kris TrinidadDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRicardo Williams Jr.DL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole DanielsDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Jerome Carter IIIPORTAL · CLEMSON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNickendre StigerS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBotros AlisandroCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLRaykwon Goldthwaite · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH ALABAMABubba Craig · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASMartez Curry · PORTAL ★3 · LINCOLN (MO)1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEZion Agnew · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR-RHYNEZion Agnew · PORTAL ★3 · LENOIR RHYNELeon Haughton Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLAND3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJaxon Potter · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEBrooklyn Nace · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBMontrell Chapman · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATELandon Kehoe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBHunter Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · WEST LIBERTYTrey Hall · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSREFILLED
DLBucci Farmer · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEMalachi Harris · SIGNEE ★3Chris HIlliard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJivan Baly · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEShaq Leaks · SIGNEE ★3Eddie Guerra · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLD DOMINION
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.641 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
10.66 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.469 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52522710052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6161355063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE313134622CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL20202018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL646433901510 OF 15 GRADED
LB77772842147 OF 14 GRADED
DB57573595229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE12th12
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%13
RECRUITING CLASS#96 · 0/18 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 14 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CONNJASON CANDLEFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5151
PACE
5353
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HAVOC
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ODURICKY RAHNE7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
PACE
3030
PASS RATE
5555
EXPLOSIVENESS
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HAVOC
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESODU OFFENSECONN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
76OF 138
TAL
27
PERF
52
RET
100
NATIONAL
120OF 136
RET
7
FULL DEFENSEUCONN DEFENSE
ODU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
QUINN HENICLEQBRET
482ND YR4426★3-35
RYAN HUFFQBRET
371ST YR241★3—
JAXON POTTERQBPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
503RD YR—45★3+39 2025
BROOKLYN NACEQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
LANDEN ABERNATHYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS83% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3924%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
4425%0%
SECONDARYDB
4110%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
138OF 138
TAL
2
PERF
20
RET
0
DL
112OF 138
DL RET
24
LB
83OF 138
LB RET
25
FRONT-7UCONN DEFENSE
ODU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CONNOR DRAKEOLRET
483RD YR——UNR—
CARSON BRADLEYOLRET
453RD YR——UNR—
LOGAN COXOLRET
423RD YR—2★3—
RAYKWON GOLDTHWAITEOLTRUE FR
374TH YR—45★3—
BRAYDEN WALKEROLPORTAL · ELON
372ND YR—2★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS76% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
K'VON SHERMANLBPORTAL · TOLEDO
813RD YR8264★3+10
DESMOND ALADUGEDTPORTAL · DUKE
592ND YR4553★3—
TAHJAE MULLIXDLPORTAL · OREGON STATE
584TH YR—17★3—
LUKE MURPHYLBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
524TH YR9328★3+13
JOSHUA MICKENSDEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
523RD YR3864★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
35
PERF
61
RET
50
DL
112OF 138
DL RET
24
LB
83OF 138
LB RET
25
FRONT-7UCONN DEFENSE
ODU RUNNING BACKSn=650% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEVIN ROCHERBRET
583RD YR8237★3+16
JA'VARIEN SALTERRBTRUE FR
503RD YR——UNR—
MAURKI JAMESRBRET
492ND YR——UNR-25 2025
TREY HALLRBPORTAL · OLE MISS
474TH YR—28★3—
TROY MARQUEZRBRET
352ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS76% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553924%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454425%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLD DOMINION OFFENSE
NATIONAL
135OF 138
TAL
34
PERF
31
RET
6
DB
120OF 138
DB RET
10
SECONDARYUCONN DEFENSE
ODU PASS CATCHERSn=2294% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEON HAUGHTON JR.TEPORTAL · MARYLAND
484TH YR5217★3-35
TJ JOHNSONWRRET
424TH YR4161★3-40
JJ HARRELLWRTRUE FR
372ND YR—45★3—
LONNIE JOHNSONTETRUE FR
372ND YR—28★3—
JOSH RODRIGUEZWRRET
351ST YR—50★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CONN SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM90% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MOUSSA KANECBPORTAL · DUKE
542ND YR——★3—
TRACY REVELSDBPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
542ND YR—17★3+49 2024
JALIL MARTINDBTRUE FR
503RD YR4779★3—
JAYDEN PRICEDBPORTAL · TOLEDO
491ST YR—45★3—
KYLISH HICKSDBRET
484TH YR1942★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.5
55.0
— OFFENSE
52.4
68.4
— DEFENSE
52.6
41.5
SP+ OVERALL
-6.9
-7.2
FPI
-7.3
-5.8
ELO
1295
1474
TALENT
544
653
PRODUCTION
33
20
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−23
+20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.02
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
OFF EFFICIENCY
75
80
DEF EFFICIENCY
81
7
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
66
84
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
78
FINISHING DRIVES
61
88
FIELD POSITION
30
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
52
96
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CONN
PASS RATE
35.4%
43.2%
PACE
34.2s
28.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
73.0%
65.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
50.0%
64.8%
PLAYS / GAME
52.7
63.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
4.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ODU, ORANGE = CONN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE