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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›USF @ FAU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SOUTH FLORIDA
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|FAU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
63FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
3-0
63
84
48
13%
16
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
113FPI
FAUAACFLORIDA ATLANTIC
2-1
29
49
18
68%
96
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USF33CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
32
PROE
50
TEMPO
16
EXPLOSIVE32p
32
PROE50p
50
TEMPO16p
16
FAU72CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
21
PROE
99
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE21p
21
PROE99p
99
TEMPO96p
96
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FAURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH FLORIDAFLORIDA ATLANTIC2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Byrum BrownPORTAL · AUBURN · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGaston MooreQB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB90%Rico Watson IIIFB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND.J. HarrisFB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNykahi DavenportRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB81%Fred Gaskin IIIPORTAL · AUBURN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Shawn RuckerCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarvis LeePORTAL · SMU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB79%Mac HarrisLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJhalyn ShulerLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL79%Cole BestOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZane HerringOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor McLaughlinOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL77%Josh CeliscarDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin LeeDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTraevon MitchellPORTAL · BAYLOR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Keshaun SingletonPORTAL · AUBURN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah KogerPORTAL · AUBURN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian NeptunePORTAL · AUBURN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLuke Kromenhoek · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEMichael Van Buren Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LSUREFILLED
RBJayson Franklin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBZa'Quan Bryan · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAA'mon Lane-Ganus · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNTeddy Foster · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBGrayson Howard · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDADennis King III · SIGNEE ★3Lorenzo Barnes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJordan Harrison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLC.J. Hicks · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEIverson Garcia-Ponce · SIGNEE ★3Demetrius Geathers Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEArhmad Branch · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEBryson Rodgers · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATECameron Seldon · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.010 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.028 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.810 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB797964041 OF 4 GRADED
RB595925082 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE5252582521CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL505051018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL52527047168 OF 16 GRADED
LB54545656166 OF 16 GRADED
DB525245372410 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE63rd63
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%58
RECRUITING CLASS#90 · 0/17 BC33
CLASS RANK TREND-40 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 44 IN / 34 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FAUZACH KITTLEY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
100100
PACE
9898
PASS RATE
100100
EXPLOSIVENESS
9898
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HAVOC
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSF OFFENSEFAU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
79
RET
0
NATIONAL
115OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSEFLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE
USF QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL VAN BUREN JR.QBPORTAL · LSU
463RD YR7964★3-23
LUKE KROMENHOEKQBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
422ND YR—78★3-38 2025
JAYDEN BRADFORDQBPORTAL · LIBERTY
402ND YR—28★3—
KJ COOPERQBPORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN
374TH YR—45★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4479%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
3450%0%
SECONDARYDB
5154%6%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
78OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
50
RET
0
DL
91OF 138
DL RET
79
LB
119OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7FLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE
USF OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALEB COOKOLPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
624TH YR—45★3+30 2025
JAYLIN ACEVEDOOLPORTAL · NAVY
542ND YR—45★3-21 2025
THOMAS SHRADEROLRET
524TH YR—74★3+4 2025
JAMES JENKINSOLRET
523RD YR—67★3—
KHALIL COLLINSOLRET
521ST YR—46★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU FRONT-7n=22 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSEPH SIPP JR.LBPORTAL · KANSAS
684TH YR9727★3+19
LEON HART JR.LBRET
634TH YR8358★3+1
ENYCE SLEDGEDLRET
564TH YR4867★3—
TYCOOLHILL LUMANDLRET
523RD YR4045★3—
HECTOR CHAVEZLBRET
522ND YR1445★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
34OF 138
TAL
25
PERF
59
RET
0
DL
91OF 138
DL RET
79
LB
119OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7FLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE
USF RUNNING BACKSn=8100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHASE GARNETTRBRET
521ST YR—56★3—
JASON COLLINS JR.RBPORTAL · MORGAN STATE
493RD YR3228★3-52
D.J. CROWTHERRBPORTAL · DARTMOUTH
484TH YR2822★3-47
ALVON ISAACRBRET
462ND YR—45★3+32 2025
TRAY KINKLERBRET
382ND YR—70★3—
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 22 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554479%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453450%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
58OF 138
TAL
58
PERF
52
RET
25
DB
67OF 138
DB RET
54
SECONDARYFLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE
USF PASS CATCHERSn=2175% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WYATT SULLIVANTERET
584TH YR8054★3-9
KENNY ODOMWRPORTAL · UTEP
564TH YR—45★3+20 2025
MUDIA REUBENWRRET
494TH YR—17★3+12 2025
ARHMAD BRANCHWRPORTAL · PURDUE
483RD YR4885★3+24
BRYSON RODGERSWRPORTAL · OHIO STATE
463RD YR5664★3-23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU SECONDARYn=33 · 1 ROOM46% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYCLEAN LUMANDBRET
583RD YR479★3—
DAMARIUS MCGHEEDBRET
554TH YR7293★4-7
TRAVIS JACKSONDBTRUE FR
521ST YR1452★3—
JK JOHNSONDBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
514TH YR8464★3-18
TYSON ROOKSDBTRUE FR
504TH YR—52★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.5
39.5
— OFFENSE
38.4
45.8
— DEFENSE
42.7
33.2
SP+ OVERALL
-1.1
-8.0
FPI
0.8
-10.4
ELO
1682
1243
TALENT
704
593
PRODUCTION
47
34
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
+8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.13
0.05
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
OFF EFFICIENCY
84
28
DEF EFFICIENCY
80
28
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
95
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
20
30
FINISHING DRIVES
94
38
FIELD POSITION
41
25
TURNOVER MARGIN
93
0
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
PASS RATE
47.7%
55.7%
PACE
30.7s
23.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.6%
49.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.8%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
58.7
76.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.1%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USF, ORANGE = FAU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE