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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›HAW @ NEV›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
HAWAI'I
NEVADA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|MACKAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
103FPI
HAWMWCHAWAI'I
1-2
17
47
47
65%
90
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
88FPI
NEVMWCNEVADA
1-1
15
15
33
36%
37
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
HAW75CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
37
PROE
99
TEMPO
90
EXPLOSIVE37p
37
PROE99p
99
TEMPO90p
90
NEV40CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
11
TEMPO
37
EXPLOSIVE72p
72
PROE11p
11
TEMPO37p
37
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
HAWRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.0
HAWAI'I won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHAWAI'INEVADA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB73%Peter ManumaDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKilinahe Mendiola-JensenDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim Wilson-JonesDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%De'Jon BentonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQwyn WilliamsDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackie Johnson IIIDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB65%Landon SimsRB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian VaughnRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE57%Karsyn PupunuWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson HarrisPORTAL · LSU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon WhitePORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Jalen SmithLB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni IovinoLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL53%James MilovaleOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZhen SoteloOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKuao PeihopaOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB21%Luke WeaverPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJeremiah Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJoenel Figueroa · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAMarquis Richardson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN COLLEGEOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIANAdam Tomczyk · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDeVon Rice · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEREFILLED
WR/TETre' Griffiths · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECarson Brown · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEDevin Alves · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLKhalil Walker · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDALipe Moala · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONAndrew Price · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBBjorn Jurgensen · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAMaika Eugenio · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HAWAI'I
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.545 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.067 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.628 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333499542 OF 4 GRADED
RB4747184663 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE373737312514 OF 25 GRADED
OL43432080196 OF 19 GRADED
DL535326521716 OF 17 GRADED
LB40405596135 OF 13 GRADED
DB45452476207 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE17th17
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%16
RECRUITING CLASS#124 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVJEFF CHOATE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
PACE
77
PASS RATE
2626
EXPLOSIVENESS
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HAVOC
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HAWTIMMY CHANG5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
PACE
6262
PASS RATE
9999
EXPLOSIVENESS
4040
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HAVOC
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHAW OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
127OF 138
TAL
49
PERF
33
RET
95
NATIONAL
107OF 136
RET
23
FULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE
HAW QUARTERBACKSn=45% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICAH ALEJADOQBRET
542ND YR8548★3+11
BJORN JURGENSENQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
441ST YR1064★3—
ISAAC JARAMILLA-PHEQBTRUE FR
304TH YR——UNR—
HAZYN BOTELHOQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4083%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3842%0%
SECONDARYDB
4838%10%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
20
PERF
43
RET
80
DL
106OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
106OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE
HAW OFFENSIVE LINEn=1920% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN SPENCEROLRET
514TH YR8410★2+35 2025
LAUTAIMI MANUMAOLRET
502ND YR21—UNR—
DENARIS DEROSA JR.OLTRUE FR
494TH YR—24★3—
DEAN BRISKIOLRET
454TH YR7816★3-34
LIPE MOALAOLPORTAL · OREGON
433RD YR5028★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN LABARBERAEDGERET
904TH YR87—UNR+49
DAVID PAINE JR.DLRET
562ND YR46—UNR—
POASA UTULBPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
523RD YR4028★3—
JEREMY NABORNE-OWENSLBTRUE FR
504TH YR19—UNR—
JAMES GILLESPIEDTPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
484TH YR4958★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
101OF 138
TAL
18
PERF
47
RET
46
DL
106OF 138
DL RET
83
LB
106OF 138
LB RET
42
FRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE
HAW RUNNING BACKSn=654% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SITANI MIKAELERBRET
502ND YR27—UNR-42
DEVON RICERBPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
482ND YR4917★3+0
CAM BARFIELDRBRET
464TH YR7728★3+18
TJ FO'ILEFUTURBTRUE FR
351ST YR—27★3—
JAMES STEFFANY-FIAMERBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554083%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453842%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHAWAI'I OFFENSE
NATIONAL
125OF 138
TAL
37
PERF
37
RET
31
DB
94OF 138
DB RET
38
SECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE
HAW PASS CATCHERSn=2569% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KAINOA CARVALHOWRRET
521ST YR2151★3—
JOSIAH FETUIWRRET
522ND YR11—UNR—
DEVIN ALVESWRPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
484TH YR4317★3—
TRE' GRIFFITHSWRPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
472ND YR2945★3—
BLAZE KAMOKUWRRET
474TH YR51—UNR-27
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BISHOP TURNERDBRET
513RD YR64—UNR+34
LARRY TURNER-GOODENDBTRUE FR
494TH YR6928★3+10
BRYSON SNELLINGDBRET
483RD YR529★2+7
JOSHUA SCOTTDBPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
474TH YR94—★3-21
AIDEN WALKERDBRET
462ND YR6352★3-7
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
40.8
43.3
— OFFENSE
43.3
42.1
— DEFENSE
38.3
44.6
SP+ OVERALL
-5.8
-7.6
FPI
-8.3
-5.1
ELO
1432
1451
TALENT
557
550
PRODUCTION
40
22
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−32
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.03
0.03
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
OFF EFFICIENCY
37
12
DEF EFFICIENCY
46
37
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
81
33
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
38
72
FINISHING DRIVES
61
2
FIELD POSITION
36
27
TURNOVER MARGIN
18
3
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
PASS RATE
67.3%
38.9%
PACE
24.6s
28.6s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
40.0%
70.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
78.8%
58.5%
PLAYS / GAME
73.3
63.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HAW, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE