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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 12›UTEP @ AF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
BALL @ OHIO0
M-OH @ KENT0
EMU @ WMU0
CMU @ BUF0
AKR @ MASS0
RICE @ TEM0
ISU @ UCF0
BGSU @ TOL0
CLEM @ DUKE0
UTEP @ AF0
ORE @ MSU0
CLT @ TLSA0
UTAH @ TCU0
GASO @ TROY0
OKST @ ASU0
VT @ MIA0
SYR @ BC0
ARIZ @ KSU0
GAST @ MRSH0
UNC @ UVA0
HAW @ NEV0
ULM @ APP0
BYU @ KU0
WIS @ PUR0
PITT @ LOU0
WAKE @ GT0
COLO @ CIN0
TA&M @ OU0
VAN @ FLA0
UTSA @ UAB0
RUTG @ PSU0
STAN @ CAL0
UCLA @ MICH0
IOWA @ ILL0
MD @ USC0
OSU @ NEB0
USA @ USM0
UNT @ TULN0
NCSU @ FSU0
USF @ FAU0
IU @ WASH0
ARST @ LT0
TTU @ BAY0
HOU @ WVU0
ARK @ TEX0
UGA @ SC0
CCU @ UL0
UK @ MIZ0
NU @ MINN0
LSU @ TENN0
MEM @ NAVY0
ECU @ ARMY0
WKU @ LIB0
MTSU @ SHSU0
MOST @ JXST0
DEL @ NMSU0
FIU @ KENN0
ODU @ CONN0
NIU @ NDSU0
WSU @ TXST0
UNLV @ SJSU0
CSU @ FRES0
SMU @ ND0
UNM @ WYO0
SDSU @ BOIS0
USU @ ORST0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTEP
AIR FORCE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 20:00 ET|FALCON STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
129FPI
UTEPMWCUTEP
1-1
26
2
53
-1%
5
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
91FPI
AFMWCAIR FORCE
1-1
1
76
0
57%
81
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UTEP38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
41
PROE
67
TEMPO
5
EXPLOSIVE41p
41
PROE67p
67
TEMPO5p
5
AF29CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
6
PROE
1
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE6p
6
PROE1p
1
TEMPO81p
81
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UTEPRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.1
UTEP won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
AIR FORCE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTEPAIR FORCE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Skyler LocklearPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi NelsonPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL95%Ivan EscobarOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMark RobinsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames WilliamsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB83%Ashten EmoryPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHahsaun WilsonRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquez TaylorRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE81%Kenny OdomWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWondame Davis Jr.WR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Willis IIIWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%KD JohnsonDT · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONUdoka EzeaniPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshaad HallDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Micah DaveyLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonte ThompsonLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah BaldwinPORTAL · UTSA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Solo BarnesS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNeil CampbellCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcell BlockerCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEJ Colson · PORTAL ★3 · INCARNATE WORDRaymond Moore III · PORTAL ★3 · MORGAN STATEBodey Weaver · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrian Williams Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEJaymon Lamb · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASEddie Lartigue · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBTavorus Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIPARTIAL
WR/TERoyal Capell · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJD Wallace · SIGNEE ★3Benny Okwura · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPreston Hickey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERN STATECaynan James · SIGNEE ★3DAdrian Tinney-Anderson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBDonavan Howard · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA STDonavan Howard · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA STATEKaleb Miles · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&M5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTEP
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.818 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
7.53 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.344 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB474752052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3535285887 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE484846332111 OF 21 GRADED
OL41412902012 OF 20 GRADED
DL494941502114 OF 21 GRADED
LB5050237597 OF 9 GRADED
DB464644432216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%24
RECRUITING CLASS#92 · 0/26 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 21 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AFTROY CALHOUN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
PACE
3232
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HAVOC
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTEPSCOTTY WALDEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
3939
PASS RATE
6868
EXPLOSIVENESS
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HAVOC
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTEP OFFENSEAF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
47
RET
0
NATIONAL
136OF 136
RET
42
FULL DEFENSEAIR FORCE DEFENSE
UTEP QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAYMOND MOORE IIIQBPORTAL · MORGAN STATE
502ND YR1428★3—
EJ COLSON JR.QBTRUE FR
492ND YR3564★3-51
CHAD WARNERQBRET
351ST YR—49★3—
BODEY WEAVERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
BRAESEN LEONQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
2886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
2896%0%
SECONDARYDB
3042%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
105OF 138
TAL
29
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
UTEP OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUAN CAMACHO JR.OLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JAYMON LAMBOLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
523RD YR2728★3—
BRIAN WILLIAMS JR.OLPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
502ND YR3128★3—
TYLER ROBERTSOLRET
491ST YR5530★3—
OMORUYI ALIU-OTOKITIOLPORTAL · LIVINGSTONE
483RD YR249★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BLAKE FLETCHERLBRET
594TH YR8931★3+13
CHAZ BARNETTDLRET
523RD YR15—UNR—
GRADY FORSYTHEDERET
523RD YR18—UNR—
JAYDEN OQUENDODLRET
504TH YR391★2—
VINNIE CANOSALBRET
483RD YR—20★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
35
RET
58
DL
128OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
131OF 138
LB RET
96
FRONT-7AIR FORCE DEFENSE
UTEP RUNNING BACKSn=842% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAVORUS JONESRBPORTAL · MISSOURI
493RD YR4264★3-39
LAMAR SPERLINGRBPORTAL · BUFFALO
483RD YR6017★3-10
ELIJAH MCCOYRBRET
472ND YR3260★3-61
KAM THOMASRBRET
454TH YR429★3+14
KAM THOMASRBRET
454TH YR429★3+14
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS10% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552886%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.452896%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
48
RET
33
DB
137OF 138
DB RET
42
SECONDARYAIR FORCE DEFENSE
UTEP PASS CATCHERSn=2167% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CASH CHEEKSTERET
523RD YR14—UNR—
JACKSON STONERTETRUE FR
521ST YR840★3—
NIK HENRYWRRET
492ND YR1549★3—
CARVER CHEEKSWRTRUE FR
494TH YR2045★3—
JADEN SMITHWRRET
474TH YR5678★3-18
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AF SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROGER JONES JR.DBRET
613RD YR82—UNR+8
MAX MUSTELLDBRET
572ND YR—24★3—
EHIMEN OYAMENDANDBRET
502ND YR27—UNR—
KOREY JOHNSONDBRET
483RD YR72—UNR-22
JORDAN ELIE-STUARTDBRET
452ND YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
38.9
58.9
— OFFENSE
48.5
63.4
— DEFENSE
29.4
54.3
SP+ OVERALL
-16.2
-0.1
FPI
-17.2
-5.8
ELO
1143
1423
TALENT
586
272
PRODUCTION
8
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−1
−39
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
OFF EFFICIENCY
1
90
DEF EFFICIENCY
70
2
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
28
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
64
8
FINISHING DRIVES
49
82
FIELD POSITION
61
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
1
54
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AF
PASS RATE
40.6%
15.4%
PACE
34.0s
25.2s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.3%
88.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
48.3%
27.3%
PLAYS / GAME
53.0
71.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.7%
6.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTEP, ORANGE = AF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE