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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›M-OH @ WMU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MIAMI (OH)
WESTERN MICHIGAN
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
TUE 00:00 ET|WALDO STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
112FPI
M-OHMACMIAMI (OH)
1-1
38
10
31
14%
15
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
65FPI
WMUMACWESTERN MICHIGAN
1-1
22
9
46
100%
32
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
M-OH35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
61
PROE
30
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE61p
61
PROE30p
30
TEMPO15p
15
WMU28CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
46
PROE
4
TEMPO
32
EXPLOSIVE46p
46
PROE4p
4
TEMPO32p
32
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.1
MIAMI (OH) won 7 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WMURECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.4
WESTERN MICHIGAN won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMI (OH)WESTERN MICHIGAN2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB80%Jordan BrunsonRB · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny TracyRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB76%Dequan FinnQB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry HessonQB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE69%Cole WeaverPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam PerryPORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian ShaneTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB65%Jackson KuwatchDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam TrickPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorban HondruLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Eli BlakeyDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSilas WaltersDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoy BeasleyPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL30%Drew TerrillOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin UkeOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin RohrsOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL26%Nasir WashingtonDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh LukusaPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCade Yacamelli · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINRodney Nelson · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTHTomarion Steward · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDavid McComb · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASDrew Bellisari · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDamarion Witten · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEDevin Hyatt · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAWilliam Pressley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRyan Stolarski · SIGNEE ★3Brody Sink · SIGNEE ★3Isaiah Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMason Ellens · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATETommy Thies · SIGNEE ★3Easton Jointer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDevontae Armstrong · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEEvan Malcore · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISDominik Kosznicki · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMikah Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATILondon Vickroy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI (OH)
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.881 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.181 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.668 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB404045052 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545424264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE414145372711 OF 27 GRADED
OL363633611810 OF 18 GRADED
DL424233722211 OF 22 GRADED
LB56563370159 OF 15 GRADED
DB444464502213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE38th38
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#105 · 0/19 BC22
CLASS RANK TREND-23 · 3 CYCLES4
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WMULANCE TAYLOR4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1010
PACE
5454
PASS RATE
1010
EXPLOSIVENESS
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8686
HAVOC
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
PACE
00
PASS RATE
3131
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
55
HAVOC
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESM-OH OFFENSEWMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
110OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
40
RET
0
NATIONAL
56OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSEWESTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE
M-OH QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVID MCCOMBQBPORTAL · KANSAS
491ST YR3245★3-11
CALEB HEAVNERQBTRUE FR
364TH YR10—UNR—
THOMAS GOTKOWSKIQBRET
472ND YR—34★3-22 2025
DREW BELLISARIQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—64★3—
LUKE BERRYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5311%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5521%0%
SECONDARYDB
4481%11%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
118OF 138
TAL
33
PERF
36
RET
61
DL
59OF 138
DL RET
11
LB
40OF 138
LB RET
21
FRONT-7WESTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE
M-OH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1839% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON LAWHORN MOOREOLRET
524TH YR—36★3—
MITCHELL BUTLEROLRET
503RD YR—5★3—
BRIAN BEIDATSCHOLTRUE FR
494TH YR——UNR—
KRIS MANUOLRET
482ND YR—31★3+16 2025
ANDREW LOWRYOLRET
483RD YR—17★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WMU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS85% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZAVIAN TIBBSDTTRUE FR
544TH YR47—UNR—
WILL GERIGDERET
524TH YR39—UNR—
JUSTYCE BETTSLBTRUE FR
522ND YR9—UNR—
KJ BURLEYDETRUE FR
522ND YR12—UNR—
JORI BENSONDTRET
504TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
42
PERF
45
RET
42
DL
59OF 138
DL RET
11
LB
40OF 138
LB RET
21
FRONT-7WESTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE
M-OH RUNNING BACKSn=658% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
D'SHAWNTAE JONESRBRET
622ND YR5445★3+18
CADE YACAMELLIRBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
494TH YR6645★3+4
RODNEY NELSONRBPORTAL · MONMOUTH
483RD YR1428★3—
LAZARO ROGERSRBTRUE FR
482ND YR4550★3+6
CHANCELLOR SPARKSRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—45★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS85% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555311%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455521%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI (OH) OFFENSE
NATIONAL
111OF 138
TAL
45
PERF
41
RET
37
DB
111OF 138
DB RET
81
SECONDARYWESTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE
M-OH PASS CATCHERSn=2763% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTIAN ROSSTETRUE FR
613RD YR6054★3-20
DAMARION WITTENWRPORTAL · OHIO STATE
523RD YR—64★3—
SCOOP SMITHWRTRUE FR
521ST YR—51★3—
BRENDAN LOFTUSTERET
501ST YR—36★3—
MALEEK HUGGINSWRTRUE FR
484TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WMU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM19% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSHUA FRANKLINDBRET
594TH YR81—UNR-8
JOEY POPESRET
583RD YR7313★2+11
JARVARIUS SIMSCBRET
544TH YR959★3-15
DAEH MCCULLOUGHSPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
523RD YR—28★3—
JORDON THOMASCBRET
494TH YR1488★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WMU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
39.3
48.1
— OFFENSE
48.4
53.5
— DEFENSE
30.3
42.7
SP+ OVERALL
-6.6
-2.2
FPI
-10.7
0.7
ELO
1252
1534
TALENT
621
572
PRODUCTION
39
35
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−21
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.06
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WMU
OFF EFFICIENCY
20
50
DEF EFFICIENCY
68
83
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
32
0
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
72
58
FINISHING DRIVES
45
8
FIELD POSITION
14
9
TURNOVER MARGIN
52
84
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WMU
PASS RATE
48.6%
40.2%
PACE
32.4s
29.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.5%
63.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
64.9%
48.7%
PLAYS / GAME
55.5
61.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
10.8%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = M-OH, ORANGE = WMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE