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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›TULN @ USF›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TULANE
SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 00:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
71FPI
TULNAACTULANE
1-1
50
31
36
21%
4
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
67FPI
USFAACSOUTH FLORIDA
2-0
63
84
48
13%
15
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TULN46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
94
PROE
40
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE94p
94
PROE40p
40
TEMPO4p
4
USF24CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
50
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE50p
50
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TULNRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
TULANE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULANESOUTH FLORIDA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jake RetzlaffQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrendan SullivanQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE79%Johnny PascuzziTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustyn ReidTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShazz PrestonPORTAL · INDIANA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Jack HollifieldOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShadre HurstOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick GrahamOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB71%Javin GordonPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArnold Barnes IIIPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZuberi MobleyPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL54%Santana HopperPORTAL · COLORADO · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan NormanPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre'von McAlpineDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Sam HowardLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarvey Dyson IIIPORTAL · NC STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMo WestmorelandLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB35%Javion WhitePORTAL · HOUSTON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBailey DespanieS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WadsworthDB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrace Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEGabe Daniels · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEGary Hadley Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Keyshaun Coleman · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLGavin Marks · PORTAL ★3 · MERCERTylan George · SIGNEE ★4Aiden Martin · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBJaylin Lucas · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEDJ Dugar Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJake Randle · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJordyn Crites · SIGNEE ★4AJ Westfield · SIGNEE ★3Cayden Dees · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBChan Lumpkin · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Brasher · SIGNEE ★3Zach Dresch · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJustin Agu · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEKajuan Banks · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAOrion Saunders · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULANE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.347 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.69 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.985 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB515147072 OF 7 GRADED
RB4747603383 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE595951302510 OF 25 GRADED
OL53535043209 OF 20 GRADED
DL45455865209 OF 20 GRADED
LB50503584104 OF 10 GRADED
DB434340662111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%35
RECRUITING CLASS#64 · 2/20 BC53
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFBRIAN HARTLINEFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TULNWILL HALLFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
3636
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HAVOC
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTULN OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
51
RET
0
NATIONAL
44OF 136
RET
12
FULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TULN QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZEON CHRISS-GREMILLIONQBPORTAL · HOUSTON
674TH YR7254★3+6
KADIN SEMONZAQBRET
433RD YR8245★3-1
TRACE JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—50★3—
JAY BEAMONQBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
CADE SCOTTQBRET
351ST YR—62★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS57% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
5456%13%
SECONDARYDB
5237%13%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
53
RET
43
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
47OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TULN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2057% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRESHAM PERRYOLRET
491ST YR—47★3—
GAVIN MARKSOLPORTAL · MERCER
492ND YR—45★3—
JAXON DUCREOLRET
492ND YR——UNR—
DOMINIC STEWARDOLRET
492ND YR—63★3—
REESE BAKEROLRET
482ND YR—60★3-34 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS49% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYAN JENKINSDTRET
623RD YR5365★3—
ASANI REDWOODDTPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
564TH YR9154★3-12
MICHAEL WILLIAMS IIDERET
554TH YR9082★3+20
GAVIN LEACHLBRET
522ND YR2632★3—
ASHTON MOSLEYLBRET
522ND YR4249★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
47
RET
33
DL
61OF 138
DL RET
47
LB
47OF 138
LB RET
56
FRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TULN RUNNING BACKSn=867% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHNNIE DANIELSRBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
614TH YR71—★3+3
MAURICE TURNERRBRET
494TH YR8245★3-19
JAYLIN LUCASRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
484TH YR7778★3+6
DJ DUGARRBTRUE FR
371ST YR—64★3—
JAMAURI MCCLURERBRET
552ND YR—60★3+31 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555247%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455456%13%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
36OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
59
RET
30
DB
65OF 138
DB RET
37
SECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE
TULN PASS CATCHERSn=2570% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY BROWN-STEPHENSWRRET
544TH YR8584★3-2
TY THOMPSONTERET
514TH YR—45★3—
BREDELL RICHARDSONWRPORTAL · UCF
512ND YR328★3—
GARRETT MMAHATWRRET
504TH YR36—UNR—
ZYCARL LEWIS JR.WRRET
502ND YR5882★3+23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AYDEN JACKSONDBPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
614TH YR96—UNR+30
TEDDY FOSTERCBPORTAL · FLORIDA
523RD YR3564★3—
ISRAEL BOYCESPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
503RD YR6545★3+20
HERLIN PERRY JR.CBRET
501ST YR2552★3—
JAIR MURPHYCBRET
493RD YR33—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.4
40.5
— OFFENSE
37.5
38.4
— DEFENSE
33.2
42.7
SP+ OVERALL
-6.0
-1.1
FPI
-0.8
0.3
ELO
1528
1676
TALENT
665
704
PRODUCTION
37
47
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+9
+2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
OFF EFFICIENCY
69
84
DEF EFFICIENCY
19
80
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
31
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
79
20
FINISHING DRIVES
49
94
FIELD POSITION
1
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
83
93
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
PASS RATE
51.5%
44.1%
PACE
35.0s
32.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.4%
62.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.2%
56.8%
PLAYS / GAME
51.5
55.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TULN, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE