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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›FLA @ FSU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA
FLORIDA STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 15:30 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
15FPI
FLASECFLORIDA
2-0
93
67
83
69%
40
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
37FPI
FSUACCFLORIDA STATE
1-1
85
96
58
40%
54
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FLA58CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
56
TEMPO
40
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE56p
56
TEMPO40p
40
FSU52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
80
PROE
21
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE80p
80
PROE21p
21
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FLARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.4
FLORIDA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.0
FLORIDA STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDAFLORIDA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%DJ LagwayPORTAL · BAYLOR · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE73%Hayden HansenPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ. Michael SturdivantWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTony LivingstonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL58%Austin BarberDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake SlaughterDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamieon George Jr.OL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL52%Tyreak SappEDGE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge Gumbs Jr.DRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichai BoireauPORTAL · OLE MISS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB46%Jordan CastellPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin MooreDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSharif DensonS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB17%Ja'Kobi JacksonPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKD DanielsPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB2%Grayson HowardPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAaron Philo · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHWill Griffin · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TEEric Singleton Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · AUBURNMicah Mays Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTLuke Harpring · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTJ Shanahan Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATETyler Chukuyem · SIGNEE ★4G'Nivre Carr · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLEmmanuel Oyebadejo · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATEKJ Ford · SIGNEE ★4JaReylan McCoy · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBCJ Bronaugh · SIGNEE ★4Dylan Purter · SIGNEE ★4Kaiden Hall · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBLondon Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAEvan Pryor · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIINTACT
LBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.986 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.244 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
63.295 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5757902352 OF 5 GRADED
RB8080888386 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626287552212 OF 22 GRADED
OL707080462010 OF 20 GRADED
DL57578288158 OF 15 GRADED
LB54549198158 OF 15 GRADED
DB646479612314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO63%96
RECRUITING CLASS#17 · 13/19 BC88
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 27 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
PACE
3939
PASS RATE
4747
EXPLOSIVENESS
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HAVOC
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FLAJON SUMRALLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
4545
PASS RATE
2828
EXPLOSIVENESS
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HAVOC
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFLA OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
57
RET
23
NATIONAL
48OF 136
RET
17
FULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
FLA QUARTERBACKSn=577% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AARON PHILOQBPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
553RD YR5189★3+36
TRAMELL JONES JR.QBRET
482ND YR3891★4-11
AARON WILLIAMSQBRET
473RD YR—93★4—
AIDAN WARNERQBRET
444TH YR—30★3-54 2024
WILL GRIFFINQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5766%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5839%14%
SECONDARYDB
5857%25%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
14OF 138
TAL
80
PERF
70
RET
46
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
32OF 138
LB RET
39
FRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
FLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2054% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRYCE LOVETTOLRET
614TH YR—77★3+5 2025
KNIJEAH HARRISOLRET
504TH YR—84★3+12 2025
TJ SHANAHAN JR.OLPORTAL · PENN STATE
504TH YR—78★3-4 2025
HARRISON MOOREOLPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
503RD YR—78★3-19 2025
TJ DICE JR.OLRET
502ND YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRIS JONESLBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
763RD YR9164★3-51
MANDRELL DESIRDLRET
712ND YR65100★4+35
DEANTE MCCRAYDLRET
604TH YR9678★3-6
DANIEL LYONSDLRET
564TH YR9082★3+5
DEAMONTAE DIGGSDLRET
524TH YR7292★4+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
2OF 138
TAL
88
PERF
80
RET
83
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
66
LB
32OF 138
LB RET
39
FRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
FLA RUNNING BACKSn=817% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADAN BAUGHRBRET
733RD YR9887★4+9
EVAN PRYORRBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
534TH YR—78★3+29 2025
DUKE CLARKRBRET
522ND YR3689★4+28
BYRON LOUISRBRET
522ND YR1693★4—
LONDON MONTGOMERYRBPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
514TH YR8889★3-6
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555766%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455839%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
62
RET
55
DB
32OF 138
DB RET
57
SECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE
FLA PASS CATCHERSn=2245% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LACOTA DIPPRETEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
664TH YR—78★3+17 2025
DALLAS WILSONWRRET
572ND YR4499★4+15
LUKE HARPRINGTEPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
543RD YR4985★3+33
MICAH JONESTERET
522ND YR—78★3—
AMIR JACKSONTERET
523RD YR3585★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MA'KHI JONESDBPORTAL · DUKE
682ND YR6378★3+25
ASHLYND BARKERDBRET
584TH YR8598★4+32
MAX REDMONDBRET
521ST YR2470★3—
ANTONIO CROMARTIE JR.DBRET
521ST YR2838★3—
CJ RICHARD JR.DBPORTAL · ILLINOIS STATE
502ND YR3678★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
52.5
48.1
— OFFENSE
62.7
57.7
— DEFENSE
42.5
38.6
SP+ OVERALL
19.4
7.7
FPI
16.2
7.7
ELO
1669
1557
TALENT
891
800
PRODUCTION
86
75
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+5
+16
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.63
0.35
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
OFF EFFICIENCY
55
88
DEF EFFICIENCY
33
59
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
3
89
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
51
76
FINISHING DRIVES
71
63
FIELD POSITION
78
52
TURNOVER MARGIN
33
51
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
PASS RATE
45.3%
40.6%
PACE
28.1s
27.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
60.2%
71.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
63.3%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
64.0
66.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
14.1%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FLA, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE