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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›ARMY @ RICE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
ARMY
RICE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 00:00 ET|RICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
80FPI
ARMYAACARMY
1-1
1
20
30
80%
53
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
122FPI
RICEAACRICE
1-2
28
4
40
39%
23
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ARMY19CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
4
PROE
0
TEMPO
53
EXPLOSIVE4p
4
PROE0p
0
TEMPO53p
53
RICE10CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
5
PROE
1
TEMPO
23
EXPLOSIVE5p
5
PROE1p
1
TEMPO23p
23
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
1-1ACTUALvs1.8-0.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.0
ARMY won 1 of 2 against a scoring profile describing 1.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
RICERECORD MATCHES
1-2ACTUALvs0.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
RICE won 1 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 0.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARMYRICE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB92%Kalib FortnerLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndon ThomasLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric FordLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB68%Casey LarkinS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCollin MattesonS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin ShieldsS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Hayden ReedRB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBriggs BartoshRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL38%Jack LatoreDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob TuiotiDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeshontez GrayDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL25%Will JeffcoatOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB25%Dewayne ColemanQB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE20%Noah ShortWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBPhillip Goodrich · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Fowler · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DBLuke Langford · SIGNEEBrooks Dupree · SIGNEEGerrit Gray · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBKaio Oliveira · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DLDominic Basrawala · SIGNEE ★3Bruce Roberts · SIGNEEHans Pederson · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLMaverick Diede · SIGNEE ★3Declan Nason · SIGNEEJaxon Newton · SIGNEE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBSkylar Hamilton · SIGNEEMatthew O'Grady · SIGNEECJ Gray · SIGNEEINTACT
WR/TEJack VanProoyen · SIGNEEMason Mixon · SIGNEEPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARMY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.661 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.694 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.430 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB404066973 OF 7 GRADED
RB4343990134 OF 13 GRADED
WR/TE42421436375 OF 37 GRADED
OL636313034CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL212121972110 OF 21 GRADED
LB3131357259 OF 25 GRADED
DB484853793412 OF 34 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE1st1
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#181 · 0/50 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-29 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 2 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
RICESCOTT ABELL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
PACE
2424
PASS RATE
22
EXPLOSIVENESS
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARMYJEFF MONKEN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
PACE
3131
PASS RATE
00
EXPLOSIVENESS
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HAVOC
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARMY OFFENSERICE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
6
PERF
40
RET
69
NATIONAL
82OF 136
RET
45
FULL DEFENSERICE DEFENSE
ARMY QUARTERBACKSn=731% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CALE HELLUMSQBRET
574TH YR55—UNR+21
BRYSON LUTERQBRET
412ND YR56★2—
ETHAN WASHINGTONQBRET
362ND YR5—UNR—
ANDREW HEIDELQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—21★3—
TANNER WILSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—17★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS62% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
5447%0%
SECONDARYDB
3325%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
29OF 138
TAL
13
PERF
63
RET
0
DL
116OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
ARMY OFFENSIVE LINEn=34100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
HENRY APPLETONOLRET
804TH YR——UNR-11 2025
BRADY SMALLOLRET
754TH YR——UNR+29 2025
PAOLO GENNARELLIOLRET
744TH YR——UNR+35 2025
KYLE KLOSKAOLRET
504TH YR—13★2—
TEDDY WILLIAMSOLRET
504TH YR—13★2-53 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STONE COMBSLBTRUE FR
524TH YR918★2+9
ROBERT ROOKSDLRET
501ST YR3529★3—
AQUANTIS CLEMMONSDLRET
493RD YR74—UNR-29
AJ BROWNDEPORTAL · UAB
494TH YR8443★3—
JO CHAVEZDERET
483RD YR71—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
113OF 138
TAL
9
PERF
43
RET
90
DL
116OF 138
DL RET
59
LB
45OF 138
LB RET
47
FRONT-7RICE DEFENSE
ARMY RUNNING BACKSn=1310% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GODSPOWER NWAWUIHERBRET
512ND YR48—UNR+28
JAKE RENDINARBRET
494TH YR629★2-35
CARSON SMITHRBRET
484TH YR619★2-19
DEMANI STEWARTRBRET
352ND YR6—UNR—
TIM KLOSKARBRET
323RD YR—13★2—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553659%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455447%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARMY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
107OF 138
TAL
14
PERF
42
RET
36
DB
134OF 138
DB RET
25
SECONDARYRICE DEFENSE
ARMY PASS CATCHERSn=3764% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARKER POLOSKEYTERET
764TH YR62—UNR-36
BRADY ANDERSONWRRET
583RD YR6025★3+36
DAVID CLERKWRRET
524TH YR17—UNR—
BRADY MOTTWRRET
524TH YR17—UNR—
SAMARI HOWARDWRRET
504TH YR64—UNR-23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM75% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAMIR BENJAMINCBPORTAL · UCLA
522ND YR4445★3—
KYREN CONDOLLCBPORTAL · DUKE
522ND YR3228★3—
BAILEY FLETCHERSRET
522ND YR4941★3—
JERRICK HARPERCBRET
454TH YR73—UNR-38
AHRAN OGBORSRET
452ND YR3852★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
47.4
57.7
— OFFENSE
55.7
64.5
— DEFENSE
39.0
50.9
SP+ OVERALL
1.1
-15.1
FPI
-2.7
-13.5
ELO
1530
1162
TALENT
304
590
PRODUCTION
50
13
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−49
+15
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.00
0.01
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
OFF EFFICIENCY
99
37
DEF EFFICIENCY
33
26
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
4
5
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
73
56
FINISHING DRIVES
91
32
FIELD POSITION
28
96
TURNOVER MARGIN
24
5
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
PASS RATE
18.3%
23.1%
PACE
27.5s
29.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
84.9%
84.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
32.0%
42.3%
PLAYS / GAME
65.5
60.7
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARMY, ORANGE = RICE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE