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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›TENN @ VAN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TENNESSEE
VANDERBILT
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|FIRSTBANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#15AP
10FPI
TENNSECTENNESSEE
3-0
91
94
27
35%
66
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
43FPI
VANSECVANDERBILT
3-0
70
100
44
35%
28
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TENN64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
79
TEMPO
66
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE79p
79
TEMPO66p
66
VAN50CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
41
PROE
80
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE41p
41
PROE80p
80
TEMPO28p
28
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.0
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTENNESSEEVANDERBILT2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Joey AguilarQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake MerklingerQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL70%Dominic BaileyDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson EasonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb HerringPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB62%Colton HoodDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre TurrentineDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McMurrayDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB45%Star ThomasRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPeyton LewisPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE42%Chris Brazzell IIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiles KitselmanTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack Van DorselaerTE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Lance HeardOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB10%Ben BoltonLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBFaizon Brandon · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
DLChaz Coleman · PORTAL ★5 · PENN STATEXavier Gilliam · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATECarter Gooden · SIGNEE ★47 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKayin Lee · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJamyan Theodore · SIGNEE ★3Javonte Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TETK Keys · SIGNEE ★5Tyreek King · SIGNEE ★4Luca Wolf · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLGabriel Osenda · SIGNEE ★4Kamari Blair · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBTJ White · SIGNEE ★4Brayden Rouse · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.287 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
68.497 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.160 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666932243 OF 4 GRADED
RB6666657465 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE767687682315 OF 23 GRADED
OL727281731812 OF 18 GRADED
DL696986552216 OF 22 GRADED
LB59597475118 OF 11 GRADED
DB555575382114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO47%88
RECRUITING CLASS#8 · 16/32 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 21 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
VANCLARK LEA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
PACE
1010
PASS RATE
4646
EXPLOSIVENESS
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TENNJOSH HEUPEL6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
PACE
9292
PASS RATE
3535
EXPLOSIVENESS
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HAVOC
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTENN OFFENSEVAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
93
PERF
66
RET
22
NATIONAL
66OF 136
RET
20
FULL DEFENSEVANDERBILT DEFENSE
TENN QUARTERBACKSn=478% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FAIZON BRANDONQBTRUE FR
521ST YR—100★5—
GEORGE MACINTYREQBRET
501ST YR1594★4—
RYAN STAUBQBPORTAL · COLORADO
453RD YR4945★3-13
MASON PHILLIPSQBRET
321ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5860%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
58100%9%
SECONDARYDB
5875%30%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
81
PERF
72
RET
73
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
60
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE
TENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1827% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JESSE PERRYOLRET
822ND YR—74★3+25 2025
DAVID SANDERS JR.OLRET
762ND YR—100★5-3 2025
DONOVAN HASLAMOLPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
664TH YR—64★3+41 2025
WENDELL MOE JR.OLRET
554TH YR—85★3+23 2025
ORY WILLIAMSOLPORTAL · LSU
552ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLON STONEDLRET
754TH YR—85★3-4 2025
TALAN CARTERDLPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
672ND YR—45★3-14 2025
GLENN SEABROOKS IIIDLRET
563RD YR7750★3-40
BRYAN LONGWELLLBRET
544TH YR9650★3+23
MILES CAPERSEDGERET
514TH YR9539★3+38
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
16OF 138
TAL
65
PERF
66
RET
74
DL
39OF 138
DL RET
60
LB
34OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE
TENN RUNNING BACKSn=626% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DESEAN BISHOPRBRET
873RD YR9255★3+29
HUNTER BARNESRBRET
494TH YR26—UNR-38
JUSTIN BAKERRBRET
482ND YR2879★3+34
DAUNE MORRISRBRET
482ND YR4486★4-40
JAVIN GORDONRBPORTAL · TULANE
462ND YR7264★3-44
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555860%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4558100%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETENNESSEE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
3OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
76
RET
68
DB
33OF 138
DB RET
75
SECONDARYVANDERBILT DEFENSE
TENN PASS CATCHERSn=2332% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAYLON STALEYWRRET
662ND YR8696★4+14
ETHAN DAVISTERET
653RD YR6395★4+30
MIKE MATTHEWSWRRET
653RD YR9097★4-2
DASAAHN BRAMETERET
522ND YR—97★4—
LUCA WOLFTETRUE FR
521ST YR—82★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ HEARDSRET
873RD YR9645★3+41
MARTEL HIGHTCBRET
514TH YR9786★4-39
CAYDEN DANIELSCBRET
502ND YR3670★3—
CARSON LAWRENCESRET
492ND YR—88★4—
MASON LEWISSTRUE FR
481ST YR—79★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.3
47.7
— OFFENSE
61.8
56.3
— DEFENSE
44.8
39.0
SP+ OVERALL
20.2
10.1
FPI
18.5
6.1
ELO
1771
1742
TALENT
886
727
PRODUCTION
91
79
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−3
−17
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.47
0.21
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
OFF EFFICIENCY
97
97
DEF EFFICIENCY
18
47
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
57
97
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
91
23
FINISHING DRIVES
86
100
FIELD POSITION
69
41
TURNOVER MARGIN
85
45
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
PASS RATE
37.4%
50.0%
PACE
26.6s
29.4s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
64.0%
56.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
42.0%
65.4%
PLAYS / GAME
67.7
61.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TENN, ORANGE = VAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE