SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›CIN @ BYU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CINCINNATI
BYU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|LAVELL EDWARDS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
34FPI
CINB12CINCINNATI
2-0
45
98
52
8%
73
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#15AP
18FPI
BYUB12BYU
2-0
58
86
84
79%
35
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
CIN66CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
52
PROE
73
TEMPO
73
EXPLOSIVE52p
52
PROE73p
73
TEMPO73p
73
BYU30CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
32
PROE
22
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE32p
32
PROE22p
22
TEMPO35p
35
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CINRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
CINCINNATI won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BYURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.9
BYU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCINCINNATIBYU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Brendan SorsbyQB · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrady LichtenbergQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB94%Tawee WalkerRB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEvan PryorPORTAL · FLORIDA · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONManny CoveyPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB89%Matthew McDoomCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian HarrisonPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevon Gola-CallardS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE83%Joe RoyerDRAFTED · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb Goodie Sr.PORTAL · MISSOURI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCyrus AllenDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%Jalen HuntDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikah ColemanDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah RogersDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB42%Jake GoldayDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack DingleLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Gavin GerhardtDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeondre BufordOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJC French IV · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERNREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBMJ Cannon · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENTy Goodwill · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAJasper Beeler · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOIS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECade Wolford · PORTAL ★4 · KENT STATEJaVonnie Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMALarenzo Fenner · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLChidera Otutu · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAThomas Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALLance Dawson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJaxon Newton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLAustin Hoane · SIGNEE ★3Luke Collins · SIGNEE ★3Solomon Mathis · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CINCINNATI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.835 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.251 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.625 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB777764061 OF 6 GRADED
RB6060511864 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE5252831421CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL646466019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL404055422111 OF 21 GRADED
LB46465361146 OF 14 GRADED
DB5555653177 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%22
RECRUITING CLASS#58 · 1/25 BC57
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BYUKALANI SITAKE11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
PACE
2828
PASS RATE
5151
EXPLOSIVENESS
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HAVOC
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
PACE
5151
PASS RATE
3737
EXPLOSIVENESS
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HAVOC
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCIN OFFENSEBYU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
7OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
77
RET
0
NATIONAL
13OF 136
RET
33
FULL DEFENSEBYU DEFENSE
CIN QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAMAJ JONESQBRET
523RD YR1584★4—
JC FRENCH IVQBPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
474TH YR9564★3+17
LIAM O'BRIENQBPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
304TH YR——UNR—
BROOKS GOODMANQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—58★3—
WILL KOCHERQBRET
304TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS41% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5886%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
6341%8%
SECONDARYDB
6351%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
28OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
64
RET
0
DL
37OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
20OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7BYU DEFENSE
CIN OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOE COTTONOLRET
704TH YR—95★4-22 2025
EVAN TENGESDAHLOLRET
624TH YR—75★3+46 2025
TARAN TYOOLRET
554TH YR—28★3+13 2025
XAVIER LOZOWICKIOLRET
524TH YR—78★3—
GRANT EDGINGTONOLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADE ULUAVELBPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
764TH YR9999★4+24
BODIE SCHOONOVERDERET
644TH YR—64★3+19 2025
TAUSILI AKANADERET
633RD YR—45★3+33 2025
ISAIAH GLASKERLBRET
564TH YR—37★3+18 2025
ANISI PURCELLDTRET
554TH YR482★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
60
RET
18
DL
37OF 138
DL RET
86
LB
20OF 138
LB RET
41
FRONT-7BYU DEFENSE
CIN RUNNING BACKSn=682% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZION JOHNSONRBRET
492ND YR4081★3-18
ZYLAN PERRYRBPORTAL · LOUISIANA
494TH YR9745★3-9
GI'BRAN PAYNERBPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
464TH YR5545★3+0
COLE TABBRBPORTAL · STANFORD
453RD YR7745★3-42
JAYZON THOMPSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—53★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555886%10%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456341%8%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECINCINNATI OFFENSE
NATIONAL
60OF 138
TAL
83
PERF
52
RET
14
DB
15OF 138
DB RET
51
SECONDARYBYU DEFENSE
CIN PASS CATCHERSn=2186% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CADE WOLFORDWRPORTAL · KENT STATE
663RD YR—92★4+36 2025
ISAIAH JOHNSONWRRET
553RD YR4978★3+23
DEVYN ZAHURSKYTERET
533RD YR—60★3—
GAVIN GROVERTERET
523RD YR4476★3-34
ELIJAH JONESWRRET
453RD YR—49★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BYU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
FALETAU SATUALASRET
903RD YR8388★4+12
EVAN JOHNSONCBRET
794TH YR9222★3-12
THERRIAN ALEXANDER IIICBRET
713RD YR—68★3-11 2025
JAYVEN WILLIAMSCBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
604TH YR8345★3-28
RAIDER DAMUNISRET
564TH YR8578★3+7
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
54.7
56.4
— OFFENSE
60.6
64.6
— DEFENSE
48.8
48.1
SP+ OVERALL
7.6
16.8
FPI
8.6
15.4
ELO
1516
1683
TALENT
634
689
PRODUCTION
57
85
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+2
−34
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
OFF EFFICIENCY
85
81
DEF EFFICIENCY
26
76
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
77
22
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
88
69
FINISHING DRIVES
94
57
FIELD POSITION
48
56
TURNOVER MARGIN
13
86
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BYU
PASS RATE
33.8%
40.3%
PACE
25.9s
29.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.7%
63.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
37.8%
55.6%
PLAYS / GAME
69.5
62.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
7.2%
6.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CIN, ORANGE = BYU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE