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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›AUB @ ALA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
AUBURN
ALABAMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
23FPI
AUBSECAUBURN
2-0
88
67
90
14%
93
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#12AP
7FPI
ALASECALABAMA
2-0
98
77
85
26%
75
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
AUB60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
39
PROE
48
TEMPO
93
EXPLOSIVE39p
39
PROE48p
48
TEMPO93p
93
ALA64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
22
PROE
94
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE22p
22
PROE94p
94
TEMPO75p
75
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
AUBURN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
ALABAMA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAUBURNALABAMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jackson ArnoldPORTAL · UNLV · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshton DanielsPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce KnightPORTAL · OLE MISS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE97%Cam ColemanPORTAL · TEXAS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Singleton Jr.WR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPreston HowardPORTAL · MARYLAND · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL94%Xavier ChaplinPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason MurphyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah WrightDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Keyron CrawfordDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeldric FaulkDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik BloctonPORTAL · LSU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB59%Jalyn CrawfordPORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKayin LeePORTAL · TENNESSEE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahquez RobinsonS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB32%Robert Woodyard Jr.PORTAL · MISSOURI · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmaris WilliamsLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB17%Damari AlstonPORTAL · TULSA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBByrum Brown · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH FLORIDATristan Ti'a · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Koger · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDABrady Marchese · SIGNEE ★4DeShawn Spencer · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLCole Best · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAJoseph Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONStanton Ramil · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATE6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDa'Shawn Womack · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSWalter Mathis Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · LSUNate Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDamonte Tabb · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBJaquez Wilkes · SIGNEE ★4Shadarius Toodle · SIGNEE ★4Adam Balogoun-Ali · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBBryson Washington · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AUBURN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
30.624 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
12.87 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.257 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB515199061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5252898893 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE4646740218 OF 21 GRADED
OL6363851207 OF 20 GRADED
DL535376671711 OF 17 GRADED
LB747480100104 OF 10 GRADED
DB52528478208 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE88th88
BLUE-CHIP RATIO38%87
RECRUITING CLASS#31 · 6/20 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND-21 · 3 CYCLES8
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-6 · 38 IN / 39 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALAKALEN DEBOER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HAVOC
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AUBALEX GOLESHFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
PACE
9595
PASS RATE
4141
EXPLOSIVENESS
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HAVOC
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAUB OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAUBURN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
99
PERF
51
RET
0
NATIONAL
10OF 136
RET
28
FULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE
AUB QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BYRUM BROWNQBPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
844TH YR9899★4+19
TRISTAN TI'AQBPORTAL · OREGON STATE
482ND YR—78★3+38 2025
WILL MYERSQBRET
302ND YR——UNR—
LOCKLAN HEWLETTQBPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
482ND YR—45★3—
RHYS BRUSHQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—64★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
6560%59%
SECONDARYDB
6890%52%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAUBURN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
34OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
63
RET
1
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
AUB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2099% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JO SIMMONSOLTRUE FR
624TH YR—85★3—
COLE BESTOLPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
594TH YR—89★3+32 2025
STANTON RAMILOLPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
523RD YR—85★3-32 2025
COLE SKINNEROLPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
524TH YR—85★3+13 2025
KENNETH MCMANUS IVOLPORTAL · AKRON
502ND YR—64★3+38 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
YHONZAE PIERRELBRET
704TH YR8299★5+10 2025
LONDON SIMMONSDLRET
702ND YR5783★3-36
DEVAN THOMPKINSDLPORTAL · USC
604TH YR8899★4-7
ISAIA FAGADLRET
553RD YR4783★3—
STEVE BOLO MBOUMOUADLRET
523RD YR2688★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAUBURN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 138
TAL
89
PERF
52
RET
88
DL
20OF 138
DL RET
46
LB
17OF 138
LB RET
60
FRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE
AUB RUNNING BACKSn=913% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JEREMIAH COBBRBRET
534TH YR9094★4+6
BRYSON WASHINGTONRBPORTAL · BAYLOR
523RD YR9797★4+13
OMAR MABSON IIRBRET
492ND YR3479★3-20
TAE MEADOWSRBPORTAL · TROY
414TH YR—64★3-26 2025
NYKAHI DAVENPORTRBPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
712ND YR—78★3+28 2025
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556446%60%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456560%59%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAUBURN OFFENSE
NATIONAL
89OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
46
RET
0
DB
7OF 138
DB RET
90
SECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE
AUB PASS CATCHERSn=21100% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KESHAUN SINGLETONWRPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
753RD YR9278★3+31
JEREMIAH KOGERWRPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
652ND YR6889★3+34
JONATHAN ECHOLSTEPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
582ND YR4778★3+48
JAKE JOHNSONTEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
544TH YR8764★3-14
ARLIS BOARDINGHAMTEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
514TH YR—64★3-4 2024
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM10% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRAY HUBBARDDBRET
914TH YR9588★4+24
ZABIEN BROWNDBRET
713RD YR9799★5+5
KEON SABBDBRET
594TH YR9997★4+7
DRE KIRKPATRICK JR.DBRET
523RD YR3873★3—
IVAN TAYLORDBRET
512ND YR3797★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
45.1
53.1
— OFFENSE
52.9
58.7
— DEFENSE
37.2
47.6
SP+ OVERALL
11.7
21.2
FPI
14.2
23.2
ELO
1678
1859
TALENT
828
974
PRODUCTION
82
91
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+7
+8
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.38
0.63
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
OFF EFFICIENCY
63
60
DEF EFFICIENCY
85
84
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
11
65
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
31
52
FINISHING DRIVES
39
78
FIELD POSITION
92
30
TURNOVER MARGIN
86
97
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
PASS RATE
46.1%
40.7%
PACE
23.4s
25.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.1%
66.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
59.1%
65.6%
PLAYS / GAME
77.0
70.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.9%
5.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AUB, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE