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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›LSU @ ARK›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LSU
ARKANSAS
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#8AP
9FPI
LSUSECLSU
2-0
95
44
93
21%
99
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
77FPI
ARKSECARKANSAS
1-1
74
99
36
14%
96
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
LSU85CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
64
PROE
90
TEMPO
99
EXPLOSIVE64p
64
PROE90p
90
TEMPO99p
99
ARK61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
24
PROE
63
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE24p
24
PROE63p
63
TEMPO96p
96
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
LSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
LSU won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
ARKANSAS won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLSUARKANSAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Garrett NussmeierDRAFTED · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Van Buren Jr.PORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE83%Bauer SharpDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZavion ThomasDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBarion BrownDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL81%Patrick PaytonDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack PyburnDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBernard GoodenDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL69%Josh ThompsonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCoen EcholsOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyree AdamsOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Harold Perkins Jr.DRAFTED · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWest WeeksLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%A.J. HaulcyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMansoor DelaneDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB30%Ju'Juan JohnsonPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBSam Leavitt · PORTAL ★5 · ARIZONA STATEHusan Longstreet · PORTAL ★4 · USCREFILLED
WR/TEEugene Wilson III · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJayce Brown · PORTAL ★4 · KANSAS STATEWinston Watkins · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLPrincewill Umanmielen · PORTAL ★5 · OLE MISSJordan Ross · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEEStephiylan Green · PORTAL ★4 · CLEMSON3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJordan Seaton · PORTAL ★5 · COLORADOAliou Bah · PORTAL ★4 · MARYLANDDevin Harper · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISS1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBTJ Dottery · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSPARTIAL
DBTy Benefield · PORTAL ★4 · BOISE STATEFaheem Delane · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEHavon Finney Jr. · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LSU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.438 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
24.422 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.056 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB535392053 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747671974 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE666690282111 OF 21 GRADED
OL565690492010 OF 20 GRADED
DL656596251912 OF 19 GRADED
LB66669271116 OF 11 GRADED
DB72729374229 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE95th95
BLUE-CHIP RATIO70%98
RECRUITING CLASS#11 · 12/16 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+8 · 41 IN / 41 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKRYAN SILVERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
PACE
8585
PASS RATE
7474
EXPLOSIVENESS
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HAVOC
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LSULANE KIFFINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
PACE
9797
PASS RATE
2020
EXPLOSIVENESS
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HAVOC
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLSU OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
72OF 138
TAL
92
PERF
53
RET
0
NATIONAL
77OF 136
RET
9
FULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE
LSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SAM LEAVITTQBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
813RD YR87100★5-1
LANDEN CLARKQBPORTAL · ELON
522ND YR1764★3—
HUSAN LONGSTREETQBPORTAL · USC
521ST YR2697★4—
KADEN MARTINQBPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
354TH YR—50★3—
CAYDEN JONESQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS74% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
5540%11%
SECONDARYDB
5415%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
56
RET
49
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
LSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2051% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN SEATONOTPORTAL · COLORADO
533RD YR—100★5-3 2025
BRAELIN MOOREOLRET
614TH YR—92★4+42 2025
ALIOU BAHOLPORTAL · MARYLAND
534TH YR—97★4+27 2025
DEVIN HARPEROTPORTAL · OLE MISS
522ND YR—97★4—
BRYSTEN MARTINEZOTTRUE FR
511ST YR—97★4—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEN BOGLELBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
554TH YR5478★3—
STEVEN SOLES JR.DLPORTAL · KENTUCKY
543RD YR5464★3+53
PHOENIX JACKSONLBPORTAL · BAYLOR
534TH YR8378★3-9
CARLON JONESDLPORTAL · USC
523RD YR3664★3—
DAVID OKEDLRET
524TH YR—85★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
100OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
47
RET
19
DL
42OF 138
DL RET
41
LB
39OF 138
LB RET
40
FRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE
LSU RUNNING BACKSn=781% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
STACY GAGERBPORTAL · UCF
512ND YR3445★3+19
CADEN DURHAMRBRET
503RD YR9195★4-9
HARLEM BERRYRBRET
472ND YR6699★5—
DILIN JONESRBPORTAL · WISCONSIN
472ND YR6864★3-10
ROD GAINEY JR.RBPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
412ND YR—45★3-50 2025
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555741%35%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455540%11%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELSU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
17OF 138
TAL
90
PERF
66
RET
28
DB
58OF 138
DB RET
15
SECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE
LSU PASS CATCHERSn=2172% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JACKSON HARRISWRPORTAL · HAWAI'I
863RD YR8489★3+29
JAYCE BROWNWRPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
724TH YR9897★4+32
TREY'DEZ GREENTERET
663RD YR7999★4+22
WINSTON WATKINS JR.WRTRUE FR
592ND YR6195★4+14
EUGENE WILSON IIIWRPORTAL · FLORIDA
573RD YR9398★4+10
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM85% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LA'KHI ROLANDDBPORTAL · MARYLAND
603RD YR—64★3+8 2025
MIGUEL MITCHELLDBRET
594TH YR9464★3+21
JOKER JOHNSONDBTRUE FR
494TH YR—92★4—
CHRISTIAN HARRISONDBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
484TH YR9264★3-6
BRYLAN GREENSTRUE FR
484TH YR——★3+22 2025
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
60.6
48.6
— OFFENSE
64.9
49.4
— DEFENSE
56.2
47.9
SP+ OVERALL
24.1
1.5
FPI
22.6
-1.7
ELO
1794
1490
TALENT
932
745
PRODUCTION
93
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+3
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.70
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
OFF EFFICIENCY
25
92
DEF EFFICIENCY
75
9
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
45
83
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
50
34
FINISHING DRIVES
13
79
FIELD POSITION
38
85
TURNOVER MARGIN
92
4
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
PASS RATE
44.0%
56.7%
PACE
20.6s
22.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.4%
55.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.3%
75.4%
PLAYS / GAME
87.5
78.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.6%
3.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LSU, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE