SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›NCSU @ UNC›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NC STATE
NORTH CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|KENAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
58FPI
NCSUACCNC STATE
1-1
77
89
43
60%
28
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
42FPI
UNCACCNORTH CAROLINA
2-0
80
51
65
28%
8
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
NCSU49CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
47
PROE
73
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE47p
47
PROE73p
73
TEMPO28p
28
UNC26CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
11
PROE
59
TEMPO
8
EXPLOSIVE11p
11
PROE59p
59
TEMPO8p
8
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNC STATENORTH CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB90%Caden FordhamLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCian SloneLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTra ThomasLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Justin JolyDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah RogersWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell AndersonWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Sabastian HarshDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny Soares Jr.PORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon ClevelandDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Hollywood SmothersPORTAL · TEXAS · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL54%Jalen GrantOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacarrius PeakOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Carter Jr.G · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB28%Devon MarshallCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamel JohnsonCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Lex ThomasPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRaul Aguirre Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIPopo Aguirre · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIZiggy Moore · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEHunter Provience · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA STATEJoshisa Trader · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIAmiri Acker · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDamaad Lewis · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Satchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDylan McCoy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrody Smith · SIGNEE ★3Tre Aiken · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKing Mack · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEOndre Evans · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJordyn Best · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NC STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.843 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.443 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.749 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB64648510052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6262745994 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE555564412611 OF 26 GRADED
OL67676766239 OF 23 GRADED
DL47476970106 OF 10 GRADED
LB46466748248 OF 24 GRADED
DB50507567239 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%78
RECRUITING CLASS#49 · 2/26 BC64
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-6 · 20 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCBILL BELICHICK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
PACE
11
PASS RATE
7676
EXPLOSIVENESS
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HAVOC
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NCSUDAVE DOEREN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
6363
EXPLOSIVENESS
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HAVOC
8686
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNCSU OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 138
TAL
85
PERF
64
RET
100
NATIONAL
63OF 136
RET
22
FULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
NCSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CJ BAILEYQBRET
603RD YR9085★4+23
WILL WILSONQBRET
522ND YR1879★3—
TAD HUDSONQBPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
424TH YR—45★3-40 2025
HUDSON WILHARMQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARKER THOMPSONQBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
6020%15%
SECONDARYDB
5397%29%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
21OF 138
TAL
67
PERF
67
RET
66
DL
87OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
28OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
NCSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2334% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KATRON EVANSOLPORTAL · MARSHALL
374TH YR—64★3—
JOSIAH VICTOROLRET
—2ND YR—55★3—
OMARIAN ABRAHAMOLRET
—2ND YR—59★3—
TEAGUE ANDERSENOLRET
654TH YR9728★3-13
JIMARION MCCRIMONOLPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
594TH YR9164★3+5
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS53% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEROY JACKSONDLRET
692ND YR6864★3-37
ISAIAH JOHNSONDLRET
564TH YR7689★3-27
XAVIER LEWISDLRET
522ND YR53—UNR+19
TREY GIDDENSDLRET
521ST YR2421★3—
DONOVAN HOILETTE JR.DLTRUE FR
504TH YR28—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
62
RET
59
DL
87OF 138
DL RET
65
LB
28OF 138
LB RET
20
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
NCSU RUNNING BACKSn=941% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN SCOTTRBRET
603RD YR6881★3+2
DARIUS JOHNSONRBRET
494TH YR99★2—
DAVION GAUSERBPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
483RD YR7364★3-14
JONATHAN PAYLORRBRET
473RD YR—96★4—
DEANDRE DESINORRBRET
472ND YR182★3—
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS55% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554565%29%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.456020%15%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENC STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
55
RET
41
DB
61OF 138
DB RET
97
SECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
NCSU PASS CATCHERSn=2659% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
VICTOR SNOWWRPORTAL · BUFFALO
584TH YR9864★3+16
DAVION DOZIERWRPORTAL · APP STATE
574TH YR7545★3+31
VANDER PLOOGTEPORTAL · OREGON
522ND YR1364★3—
PRESTON DOUGLASTERET
512ND YR2765★3—
HUNTER PROVIENCETEPORTAL · MONTANA STATE
494TH YR1389★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM3% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PEYTON WATERSDBRET
522ND YR4064★3—
GREG SMITHDBRET
502ND YR6885★3+14
JALON THOMPSONDBRET
493RD YR—89★4—
KHRISTIAN DUNBAR-HAWKINSDBRET
492ND YR—45★3—
KENTON DOPSON IIIDBTRUE FR
481ST YR1495★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
42.3
42.7
— OFFENSE
47.4
46.0
— DEFENSE
37.2
39.5
SP+ OVERALL
8.0
6.4
FPI
2.4
6.3
ELO
1509
1395
TALENT
757
768
PRODUCTION
69
60
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+6
+25
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.27
0.27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
OFF EFFICIENCY
51
18
DEF EFFICIENCY
65
51
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
94
15
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
8
70
FINISHING DRIVES
96
25
FIELD POSITION
77
46
TURNOVER MARGIN
23
22
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
PASS RATE
46.7%
52.8%
PACE
30.0s
33.3s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.1%
50.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.7%
60.0%
PLAYS / GAME
60.0
54.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.2%
5.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NCSU, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE