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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›SMU @ STAN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SMU
STANFORD
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|STANFORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#17AP
24FPI
SMUACCSMU
2-0
78
76
71
57%
28
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
86FPI
STANACCSTANFORD
1-1
64
23
68
21%
65
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
SMU69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
93
TEMPO
28
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE93p
93
TEMPO28p
28
STAN52CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
33
PROE
58
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE33p
33
PROE58p
58
TEMPO65p
65
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
STANRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
STANFORD won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSMUSTANFORD2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB87%T.J. HardenRB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris Johnson Jr.PORTAL · CLEMSON · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%Isaiah SmithDE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron RobertsonDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry WebbDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE70%Matthew HibnerDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello BrinsonWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan HudsonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB56%Ahmaad MosesS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce HarmonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah NwokobiaS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Savion ByrdOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan ParrOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB31%Zakye BarkerPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MedlockLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ WarnerPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKendrick Raphael · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAChristian Rhodes · SIGNEE ★4EJ Kelly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLMarques White · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTSHudson Woods · SIGNEE ★3Amontre Harris · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEYannick Smith · PORTAL ★4 · EAST CAROLINATheo Melin Ohrstrom · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MRandy Pittman Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJayvon Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MDeuce Gilbert · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDrew Evers · SIGNEE ★4Evan Goodwin · SIGNEE ★4Sam Utu · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKenneth Goodwin III · SIGNEE ★3I'Zayah Young · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SMU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.867 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.576 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.458 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353461005CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB49499596CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE6262833223CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL636387019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL4444651519CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB6060656910CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB5050584318CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE78th78
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%82
RECRUITING CLASS#32 · 6/21 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND+75 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 15 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
STANTAVITA PRITCHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
PACE
8383
PASS RATE
6161
EXPLOSIVENESS
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSMU OFFENSESTAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
73OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
53
RET
100
NATIONAL
55OF 136
RET
30
FULL DEFENSESTANFORD DEFENSE
SMU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEVIN JENNINGSQBRET
594TH YR9740★3+19
TY HAWKINSQBRET
491ST YR—90★4—
CHARLIE FISERQBRET
364TH YR——UNR—
COLE LEINARTQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—37★3—
MABREY METTAUERQBPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
442ND YR—84★3-15 2025
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
49100%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
40100%14%
SECONDARYDB
5083%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
87
PERF
63
RET
0
DL
75OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
99OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE
SMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOSHUA BATESOLRET
713RD YR—89★3+30 2025
ADDISON NICHOLSOLRET
694TH YR—85★3+42 2025
PJ WILLIAMSOLRET
654TH YR—89★3+3 2025
GRAHAM UTEROLRET
522ND YR—52★3—
ALEX WOODSOLRET
503RD YR—60★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS0% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MATT ROSELBRET
794TH YR9246★3+0
BRADEN MARCEAU-OLAYINKADLRET
553RD YR7654★3+1
OMAR STAPLESDLRET
543RD YR6659★3+10
CONNOR BACHHUBERDLRET
522ND YR3952★3—
KOLE BRIEHLERDTRET
521ST YR3877★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
87OF 138
TAL
95
PERF
49
RET
9
DL
75OF 138
DL RET
100
LB
99OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE
SMU RUNNING BACKSn=691% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DRAMEKCO GREENRBRET
501ST YR3885★4-53
KENDRICK RAPHAELRBPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
494TH YR9897★4-32
WILLIAM FIERRORBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
LINK RHODESRBRET
494TH YR——UNR—
CHRISTIAN RHODESRBTRUE FR
471ST YR—94★4—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS0% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5549100%8%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4540100%14%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESMU OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 138
TAL
83
PERF
62
RET
32
DB
75OF 138
DB RET
83
SECONDARYSTANFORD DEFENSE
SMU PASS CATCHERSn=2368% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
YAMIR KNIGHTWRRET
674TH YR9664★3+21
YANNICK SMITHWRPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
643RD YR9097★4+22
RANDY PITTMANTETRUE FR
634TH YR9274★3+20
THEO MELIN OHRSTROMTEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
584TH YR—92★4+38 2025
DERRICK MCFALLWRRET
552ND YR4285★4+25
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM17% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SCOTTY EDWARDSSRET
664TH YR9932★3+9
CHARLIE ECKHARDTSRET
562ND YR6534★3+34
LASIAH JACKSONDBTRUE FR
521ST YR2492★4—
SAM NEELY IIICBRET
522ND YR3345★3—
DARRIUS DAVISSRET
523RD YR7160★3-5
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 2025
61.2
46.7
— OFFENSE 2025
64.2
52.8
— DEFENSE 2025
58.1
40.7
SP+ OVERALL
15.3
-3.9
FPI
13.8
-4.9
ELO
1734
1354
TALENT
765
706
PRODUCTION
82
42
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−10
+27
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.31
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
OFF EFFICIENCY
61
10
DEF EFFICIENCY
67
39
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
93
39
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
67
25
FINISHING DRIVES
85
19
FIELD POSITION
81
99
TURNOVER MARGIN
75
39
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
PASS RATE
55.8%
56.6%
PACE
30.0s
26.5s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
52.8%
52.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
80.7%
75.0%
PLAYS / GAME
60.0
68.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
2.5%
2.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SMU, ORANGE = STAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE