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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 13›WASH @ ORE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
M-OH @ WMU0
KENT @ EMU0
TCU @ TTU0
TULN @ USF0
TEM @ MEM0
FAU @ ECU0
NEB @ IOWA0
MSST @ MISS0
TOL @ OHIO0
BUF @ AKR0
APP @ USA0
NDSU @ SJSU0
FLA @ FSU0
MINN @ WIS0
TEX @ TA&M0
WVU @ UTAH0
USC @ UCLA0
TENN @ VAN0
CONN @ WYO0
AUB @ ALA0
CCU @ JMU0
NAVY @ CLT0
NCSU @ UNC0
DUKE @ WAKE0
TLSA @ UTSA0
BAY @ HOU0
ARMY @ RICE0
GT @ UGA0
LSU @ ARK0
LOU @ UK0
LT @ GASO0
PUR @ IU0
SMU @ STAN0
UCF @ COLO0
MRSH @ ULM0
PSU @ MD0
KU @ OKST0
WASH @ ORE0
PITT @ CAL0
OU @ MIZ0
USM @ ODU0
UVA @ VT0
SC @ CLEM0
ND @ SYR0
ASU @ ARIZ0
UAB @ UNT0
BC @ MIA0
KSU @ ISU0
UL @ GAST0
CIN @ BYU0
MSU @ RUTG0
UTEP @ NIU0
ILL @ NU0
CMU @ BALL0
MICH @ OSU0
MASS @ BGSU0
KENN @ WKU0
LIB @ MOST0
SHSU @ FIU0
NMSU @ MTSU0
TROY @ ARST0
JXST @ DEL0
AF @ UNM0
NEV @ UNLV0
SAC @ HAW0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
WASHINGTON
OREGON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 00:00 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#19AP
44FPI
WASHB1GWASHINGTON
2-0
83
91
76
54%
65
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
#6AP
13FPI
OREB1GOREGON
1-1
99
90
94
75%
35
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
WASH41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
7
PROE
53
TEMPO
65
EXPLOSIVE7p
7
PROE53p
53
TEMPO65p
65
ORE65CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
97
PROE
62
TEMPO
35
EXPLOSIVE97p
97
PROE62p
62
TEMPO35p
35
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WASHRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
WASHINGTON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTONOREGON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB92%Jonah ColemanDRAFTED · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam MohammedPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL63%Ta'ita'i UiagaleleiDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach DurfeeDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnterio ThompsonDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%Ephesians PrysockDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakell EsteenS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTacario DavisDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Denzel BostonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaiden Vines-BrightPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuentin MooreTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB32%Deven BryantPORTAL · USC · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL28%Carver WillisDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaki FinauOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB4%Kai HortonQB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJayden Limar · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONBrian Bonner Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Ansu Sanoe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDerek Colman-Brusa · SIGNEE ★4JD Hill · SIGNEE ★4Tufanua Ionatana Umu-Cais · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBEmmanuel Karnley · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIARahsjon Duncan · SIGNEE ★4Gavin Day · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Moss · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEJordan Clay · SIGNEE ★4Trez Davis · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRamzak Fruean · SIGNEE ★4Ezaya Tokio · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLKolt Dieterich · PORTAL ★4 · SAM HOUSTONKodi Greene · SIGNEE ★5Dominic Harris · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBDerek Zammit · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.284 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.590 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.264 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB757510010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB74746824103 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE5252744520CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL606084017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL484875281910 OF 19 GRADED
LB47476710074 OF 7 GRADED
DB68688562166 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE83rd83
BLUE-CHIP RATIO30%81
RECRUITING CLASS#13 · 11/27 BC91
CLASS RANK TREND+34 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 14 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4242
EXPLOSIVENESS
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HAVOC
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WASHJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
3434
PASS RATE
7979
EXPLOSIVENESS
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWASH OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
9OF 138
TAL
100
PERF
75
RET
100
NATIONAL
14OF 136
RET
33
FULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE
WASH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEMOND WILLIAMS JR.QBRET
833RD YR83100★4+30
DEREK ZAMMITQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—83★3—
ELIJAH BROWNQBPORTAL · STANFORD
442ND YR—45★3-26 2025
DASH BEIERLYQBRET
351ST YR—82★3—
TRESTON MCMILLANQBRET
351ST YR—78★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
54100%37%
SECONDARYDB
6864%36%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
41OF 138
TAL
84
PERF
60
RET
0
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
44OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
WASH OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DREW AZZOPARDIOLRET
754TH YR—95★4-8 2025
JOHN MILLSOLRET
732ND YR—84★4+37 2025
LANDEN HATCHETTOLRET
554TH YR—84★4+26 2025
CHAMP TAULEALEAOLRET
521ST YR—88★4—
KODI GREENEOLTRUE FR
501ST YR—99★5—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS3% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BEAR ALEXANDERDLRET
864TH YR9897★40
TEITUM TUIOTILBRET
774TH YR9881★3+5
D'ANTRE ROBINSONDLPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
753RD YR7498★4-22
A'MAURI WASHINGTONDLRET
674TH YR9191★4-16
AYDIN BRELANDDLRET
542ND YR4098★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
4OF 138
TAL
68
PERF
74
RET
24
DL
46OF 138
DL RET
96
LB
44OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE
WASH RUNNING BACKSn=1076% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN LIMARRBPORTAL · OREGON
524TH YR6378★3+31
QUAID CARRRBRET
501ST YR1163★3—
BRIAN BONNER JR.RBTRUE FR
471ST YR—97★4—
TREY COOLEYRBPORTAL · TROY
454TH YR7445★3+7
ANSU SANOERBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555696%56%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4554100%37%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON OFFENSE
NATIONAL
57OF 138
TAL
74
PERF
52
RET
45
DB
10OF 138
DB RET
64
SECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE
WASH PASS CATCHERSn=2055% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DEZMEN ROEBUCKWRRET
562ND YR7866★3+7
CHRIS LAWSONWRRET
522ND YR3487★4-45
BARON NAONETERET
512ND YR1678★3—
RASHID WILLIAMSWRRET
503RD YR5188★4+7
DECKER DEGRAAFTERET
473RD YR8474★3+48
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRANDON FINNEY JR.DBRET
862ND YR8198★4-11
KOI PERICHDBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
773RD YR95100★4+16
NA'EEM OFFORDDBRET
552ND YR55100★5-19
PEYTON WOODYARDDBRET
533RD YR5489★3-33
DAVON BENJAMINDBTRUE FR
521ST YR6—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
56.3
57.3
— OFFENSE
62.1
62.9
— DEFENSE
50.5
51.6
SP+ OVERALL
11.1
22.9
FPI
5.9
17.1
ELO
1757
1811
TALENT
778
984
PRODUCTION
88
99
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−8
−6
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.30
0.62
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
OFF EFFICIENCY
93
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
79
89
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
61
86
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
65
58
FINISHING DRIVES
92
90
FIELD POSITION
55
18
TURNOVER MARGIN
61
88
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
PASS RATE
57.4%
59.7%
PACE
26.5s
29.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
47.5%
49.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
70.3%
76.7%
PLAYS / GAME
68.0
62.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WASH, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE