SAT 19:00 ET|TDECU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U56.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
11-3
39
46
59
43%
51
32
26.5
+110
+3.0
HOME
7
4-8
53
14
76
64%
3
79
29.5
-130
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUNLV27—HOU7
CLOSED HOU -3.0TOTAL 56.0UNLV COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
UNLV
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
HOU
UNLV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
HOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL56.0
SPREADHOU -3.0
IMPLIED — UNLV26.5
IMPLIED — HOU29.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
26FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT26 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 26 positions on a 37-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UNLVRECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
UNLV won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.9
HOUSTON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUNLVHOUSTON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jayden MaiavaPORTAL · USC · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDoug BrumfieldQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB74%Vincent Davis Jr.RB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonavyn LesterRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCourtney ReesePORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB57%Jaxen TurnerDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRicky JohnsonDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameren JenkinsS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB43%Fred ThompkinsLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah SheltonLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZavier CarterLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL37%Amani Trigg-WrightOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlani MakihelePORTAL · UCLA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE29%Senika McKiePORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShelton Zeon IIITE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL20%Darius JohnsonDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMatthew Sluka · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSHajj-Malik Williams · PORTAL ★3 · CAMPBELLGael Ochoa · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBKylin James · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL ARKANSASMichael Allen · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEGreg Burrell · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJalen Catalon · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASTony Grimes · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MLaDarrius Bishop · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMani Powell · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASMelvin Laster · SIGNEE ★3Koi Pa'ao'ao · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLToby Moore · SIGNEE ★3Dyllan Drummond · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TECasey Cain · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASKayden McGee · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLAntonio Doyle Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEJaden Navarrette · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONMax Mogelson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UNLV
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.055 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.635 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.267 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB666678253 OF 5 GRADED
RB7171595085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE494948692216 OF 22 GRADED
OL505039942017 OF 20 GRADED
DL575748761815 OF 18 GRADED
LB747434691010 OF 10 GRADED
DB676744582117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%29
RECRUITING CLASS#76 · 0/23 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND+26 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUWILLIE FRITZFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNLVBARRY ODOM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNLV OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUNLV OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE UNLV QUARTERBACKSn=598% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS67% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUNLV OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE UNLV OFFENSIVE LINEn=206% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUNLV OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE UNLV RUNNING BACKSn=850% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556436%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455260%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUNLV OFFENSESECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE UNLV PASS CATCHERSn=2231% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM77% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−37
+28
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS67.5%
60.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS46.9%
49.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNLV, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE