SAT 19:30 ET|CLARENCE T.C. CHING ATHLETICS COMPLEXNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP58|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
16
5-7
80
62
71
62%
12
96
34.5
-550
-13.5
HOME
13
5-7
22
17
38
90%
65
25
21.0
+410
+13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUCLA16—HAW13
CLOSED UCLA -13.5TOTAL 55.5HAW COVERED · 29 POINTS · UNDER
UCLA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
HAW
UCLA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
HAW
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADUCLA -13.5
IMPLIED — UCLA34.5
IMPLIED — HAW21.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 37-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UCLARECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.9-8.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
UCLA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HAWRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.7
HAWAI'I won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCLAHAWAI'I2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB71%John HumphreyPORTAL · USC · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny Churchwell IIIDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex JohnsonDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%Gabriel MurphyDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaiatu LatuDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrayson MurphyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB63%Dante MoorePORTAL · OREGON · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCollin SchleePORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB45%Carson SteeleRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL42%Duke ClemensOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBruno FinaPORTAL · DUKE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE41%Carsen RyanPORTAL · UTAH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle FordPORTAL · USC · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam BrownPORTAL · PURDUE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB38%Darius MuasauDRAFTED · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChoe Bryant-StrotherPORTAL · BYU · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBK.J. Wallace · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHKaylin Moore · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIARamon Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAME3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCollins Acheampong · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMILuke Schuermann · PORTAL ★3 · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITYCherif Seye · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&M1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDermaricus Davis · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONHenry Hasselbeck · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBCameron Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLMichael Carmody · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEReuben Unije · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEAlani Makihele · PORTAL ★3 · UNLV3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERico Flores · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEBryce Pierre · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEKwazi Gilmer · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBJoseph Vaughn · PORTAL ★3 · YALEIsaiah Patterson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCLA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.926 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.670 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.29 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB56568310072 OF 7 GRADED
RB50504777116 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE444477581712 OF 17 GRADED
OL323256762311 OF 23 GRADED
DL353566751710 OF 17 GRADED
LB585859100137 OF 13 GRADED
DB565662312114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO32%79
RECRUITING CLASS#90 · 2/11 BC33
CLASS RANK TREND-29 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HAWTIMMY CHANG3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCLADESHAUN FOSTERFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCLA OFFENSEHAW OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCLA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEHAWAI'I DEFENSE UCLA QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HAW DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 61 PLAYERS8% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7HAWAI'I DEFENSE UCLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2324% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HAW FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS13% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7HAWAI'I DEFENSE UCLA RUNNING BACKSn=1123% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HAW FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS12% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555678%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4548100%8%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCLA OFFENSESECONDARYHAWAI'I DEFENSE UCLA PASS CATCHERSn=1742% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HAW SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM4% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HAW
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+35
0
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HAW
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HAW
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS49.9%
41.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.1%
75.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCLA, ORANGE = HAW) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE