SAT 15:30 ET|L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP66|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE 14
9-5
8
49
13
40%
66
1
14.5
+2000
+27.5
HOME
49
9-4
74
89
83
15%
46
74
42.0
-5000
-27.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALJXST14—LOU49
CLOSED LOU -27.5TOTAL 56.5LOU COVERED · 63 POINTS · OVER
JXST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
LOU
JXST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADLOU -27.5
IMPLIED — JXST14.5
IMPLIED — LOU42.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs9.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.3
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJACKSONVILLE STATELOUISVILLE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB66%Zion WebbQB · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL63%Chris HardiePORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson LuttrellDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff MarksDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB54%Quae DrakeLB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden ThomasLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB54%Jeremiah HarrisS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolbi FuquaDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKekoura TarnuePORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB50%Malik JacksonRB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReggion BennettRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE40%Quinton LaneWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPerry CarterWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSterling GalbanPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Treylen BrownOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier BausleyPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBZion Turner · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNTyler Huff · PORTAL ★3 · FURMANREFILLED
DLMorven Joseph · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICZedric Washington · SIGNEE ★3Nick Igbeare · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
LBReginald Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSPARTIAL
DBKam Snell · PORTAL ★3 · GANNONJosh Knapp · PORTAL ★3 · VMIAntonio Carter II · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAME2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBAndrew Paul · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJustus Savage · SIGNEE ★3Andre Devine · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TETar'Varish Dawson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADODemarcus Lacey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH ALABAMABrannon Spector · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSON4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCam Jones · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIDaylan Martin · SIGNEE ★3Amare Grayson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JACKSONVILLE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.938 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.654 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.629 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB535310673 OF 7 GRADED
RB57577213116 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE444454782517 OF 25 GRADED
OL454548642113 OF 21 GRADED
DL252545631612 OF 16 GRADED
LB39394252129 OF 12 GRADED
DB383859492317 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE8th8
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%50
RECRUITING CLASS#128 · 0/20 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND+22 · 3 CYCLES94
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LOUJEFF BROHM2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JXSTRICH RODRIGUEZ2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJXST OFFENSELOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELOUISVILLE DEFENSE JXST QUARTERBACKSn=794% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE JXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2136% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE JXST RUNNING BACKSn=1187% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557755%12%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457184%23%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSESECONDARYLOUISVILLE DEFENSE JXST PASS CATCHERSn=2522% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−40
−11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS76.3%
56.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.5%
75.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JXST, ORANGE = LOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE