SAT 15:30 ET|NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP24|O/U43.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
11
3-9
25
6
44
24%
43
33
16.0
+400
+11.5
HOME
38
10-3
1
68
47
57%
5
46
27.5
-525
-11.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALTEM11—NAVY38
CLOSED NAVY -11.5TOTAL 43.5NAVY COVERED · 49 POINTS · OVER
TEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NAVY
TEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NAVY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL43.5
SPREADNAVY -11.5
IMPLIED — TEM16.0
IMPLIED — NAVY27.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TEMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.8
TEMPLE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NAVYRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
NAVY won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEMPLENAVY2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB96%E.J. WarnerPORTAL · RICE · 86% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuincy PattersonQB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB78%Jalen McMurrayPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTywan FrancisS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominick HillS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Jordan MageeDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob HollinsLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYvandy RigbyLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB76%Darvon HubbardPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdward SaydeePORTAL · GARDNER-WEBB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL63%Jerquavion MahoneDL · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavion HoodPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZymir CobbsPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE51%David Martin-RobinsonTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan SmithTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmad Anderson Jr.WR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL50%Victor StoffelPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce ThomanOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard RodriguezOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEvan Simon · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSChris Dietrich · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBTorey Richardson · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPAndreas Keaton · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINAJaylen Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBT.K. Wright · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATETyquan King · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAREFILLED
RBAntwain Littleton II · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDPARTIAL
DLCam'Ron Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSLatrell Jean · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICPARTIAL
WR/TEAntonio Jones · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLINGTyler Stewart · SIGNEE ★3Jamar Taylor Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLGrayson Mains · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAEvan Dailey · SIGNEE ★3Davray Venu · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEMPLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.09 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.528 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
29.26 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4141172452 OF 5 GRADED
RB4141502665 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE434341472515 OF 25 GRADED
OL232344621910 OF 19 GRADED
DL323265391411 OF 14 GRADED
LB303047441813 OF 18 GRADED
DB555543272115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE25th25
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%22
RECRUITING CLASS#115 · 0/16 BC14
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 15 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRY2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEMSTAN DRAYTON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8383
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEM OFFENSENAVY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEMPLE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENAVY DEFENSE TEM QUARTERBACKSn=576% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 78 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEMPLE OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE TEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1938% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-7n=42 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEMPLE OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE TEM RUNNING BACKSn=674% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS20% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555178%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEMPLE OFFENSESECONDARYNAVY DEFENSE TEM PASS CATCHERSn=2553% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY SECONDARYn=36 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+18
−58
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.4%
81.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.0%
40.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEM, ORANGE = NAVY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE