SAT 16:15 ET|VAUGHT-HEMINGWAY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP67|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
3
3-9
19
17
1
56%
18
17
9.0
—
+42.5
HOME
52
10-3
86
92
99
82%
94
86
51.5
—
-42.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALMTSU3—MISS52
CLOSED MISS -42.5TOTAL 60.5MISS COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
MTSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MISS
MTSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MISS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADMISS -42.5
IMPLIED — MTSU9.0
IMPLIED — MISS51.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-16.2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MISSRECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs11.0-1.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.6
OLE MISS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIDDLE TENNESSEEOLE MISS2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL87%Marley CookPORTAL · MIAMI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuindarius DunniganPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan BranchDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL75%Wilson KellyOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeylan RutledgePORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacqui GrahamOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Elijah MetcalfPORTAL · MARSHALL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ England-ChisolmWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin OlsonPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Teldrick RossCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakobe ThomasPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTra FluellenS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB43%Sam BrumfieldPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnathan ButlerLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaquon HartleyPORTAL · GARDNER-WEBB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB1%Jalen MontgomeryRB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB1%Kyle LowePORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLFelix Hixon · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAKedrick Burley · SIGNEE ★3Zeion Simpson-Smith · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLEllis Adams · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE TECHAlex Gale · SIGNEE ★3Zach Clayton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEOmari Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNGamarion Carter · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTJosh Evans · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBJames Monds III · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANABrendon Harris · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTJackson Lowe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBAmarrien Bailey · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Beasley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBBrian Brewton · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNINTACT
QBXavier Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UCFRoman Gagliano · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.315 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.643 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.112 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3838439842 OF 4 GRADED
RB3838499986 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE424250382519 OF 25 GRADED
OL262625581712 OF 17 GRADED
DL323240621310 OF 13 GRADED
LB272741712115 OF 21 GRADED
DB343442441916 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE19th19
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%21
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/18 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 12 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MISSLANE KIFFIN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MTSUDEREK MASONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMTSU OFFENSEMISS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOLE MISS DEFENSE MTSU QUARTERBACKSn=42% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE MTSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1742% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7OLE MISS DEFENSE MTSU RUNNING BACKSn=81% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.559057%56%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457674%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSESECONDARYOLE MISS DEFENSE MTSU PASS CATCHERSn=2562% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MISS SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM48% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+15
−13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MISS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS45.2%
57.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.1%
64.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MTSU, ORANGE = MISS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE