SAT 19:00 ET|MALONE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
3-9
40
32
37
65%
84
48
33.0
-400
-10.5
HOME
32
5-7
6
19
31
17%
2
53
22.5
+320
+10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALUAB6—ULM32
CLOSED UAB -10.5TOTAL 55.5ULM COVERED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
UAB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ULM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADUAB -10.5
IMPLIED — UAB33.0
IMPLIED — ULM22.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
37FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UABRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.1-7.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.1
UAB won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ULMRECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.9-8.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.8
UL MONROE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUABUL MONROE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB72%Mac McWilliamsPORTAL · UCF · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeondre SwoopesS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBJ MayesPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Michael Fairbanks IILB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson BrattonPORTAL · NORTH ALABAMA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill SorrellsLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Jermaine Brown Jr.RB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL47%Will ParkerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke JonesOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrennan MoranOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE41%Tejhaun PalmerDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFred Farrier IIPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSamario RudolphPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL31%Fish McWilliamsDL · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBTroy Jakubec · PORTAL ★3 · YOUNGSTOWN STATESirad Bryant · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHAdrian Maddox · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBOctavius Brothers · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEPARTIAL
RBArmoni Goodwin · PORTAL ★3 · LSUREFILLED
OLDJ Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MURRAY STATEJonDarius Morgan · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINABaron Franks II · PORTAL ★3 · NORFOLK STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJosh Jackson · SIGNEE ★3Xavier Daisy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLLeDarrius Cox · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAEzra Odinjor · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHOmar White · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UAB
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.148 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.167 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.327 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4141603196 OF 9 GRADED
RB6565459175 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE575747792315 OF 23 GRADED
OL626223391913 OF 19 GRADED
DL262652702115 OF 21 GRADED
LB44445071108 OF 10 GRADED
DB515156292417 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE40th40
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%35
RECRUITING CLASS#98 · 1/19 BC27
CLASS RANK TREND-12 · 3 CYCLES26
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 19 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ULMBRYANT VINCENTFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UABTRENT DILFER2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9494
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUAB OFFENSEULM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUAB OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUL MONROE DEFENSE UAB QUARTERBACKSn=969% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS56% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUAB OFFENSEFRONT-7UL MONROE DEFENSE UAB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1961% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS59% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUAB OFFENSEFRONT-7UL MONROE DEFENSE UAB RUNNING BACKSn=79% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553952%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUAB OFFENSESECONDARYUL MONROE DEFENSE UAB PASS CATCHERSn=2321% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ULM SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM53% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+18
−6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ULM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.5%
70.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.2%
52.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.0%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UAB, ORANGE = ULM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE