SAT 19:00 ET|MACKAY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
8-5
24
32
18
41%
52
42
27.5
-110
+1.5
HOME
17
3-10
23
51
8
49%
28
41
29.0
-110
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALGASO20—NEV17
CLOSED NEV -1.5TOTAL 56.5GASO COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
GASO
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NEV
GASO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NEV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADNEV -1.5
IMPLIED — GASO27.5
IMPLIED — NEV29.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
GASORECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
GEORGIA SOUTHERN won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-10ACTUALvs4.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.7
NEVADA won 3 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA SOUTHERNNEVADA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB96%Davis BrinQB · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE57%Khaleb HoodWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJjay McafeeTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony QueeleyWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Khalil CrowderOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian MillerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRasheed MillerPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB39%Damel HickmanDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShemar BartholomewDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSeth RobertsonPORTAL · APP STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB31%Khadry JacksonLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTarian Lee Jr.PORTAL · SMU · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL4%Kierron SmithDL · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB1%Terron Dixon IIIRB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDexter Williams II · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANATyler Budge · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TETyler Fromm · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNLV Bunkley-Shelton · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAKeon Davis · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJustin Kanyuk · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAJalen Burgess · SIGNEE ★3Kingtriton Samuela · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDeontre Morris · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEChance Gamble · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEDevin Collier · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDavon Hicks · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATECJ Allen · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Bentley · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLNasir Smith · SIGNEE ★3Eli Anders · SIGNEE ★3Korey Jordan · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
61.681 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.861 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.585 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5050619362 OF 6 GRADED
RB404041100104 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE535347652314 OF 23 GRADED
OL494928711911 OF 19 GRADED
DL373739921810 OF 18 GRADED
LB31313186149 OF 14 GRADED
DB545424682516 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE24th24
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%35
RECRUITING CLASS#91 · 0/22 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND+19 · 3 CYCLES88
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVJEFF CHOATEFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GASOCLAY HELTON3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGASO OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE GASO QUARTERBACKSn=67% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE GASO OFFENSIVE LINEn=1929% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE GASO RUNNING BACKSn=100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552943%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA SOUTHERN OFFENSESECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE GASO PASS CATCHERSn=2335% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−22
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GASO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.5%
60.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.1%
64.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GASO, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE