SAT 19:00 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP50|O/U65.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
16
7-6
50
20
48
86%
89
29
16.0
+3000
+33.5
HOME
42
9-4
100
95
89
60%
43
98
49.5
-10000
-33.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALUSF16—ALA42
CLOSED ALA -33.5TOTAL 65.5USF COVERED · 58 POINTS · UNDER
USF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ALA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL65.5
SPREADALA -33.5
IMPLIED — USF16.0
IMPLIED — ALA49.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT33 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 33 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
USFRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTH FLORIDA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs10.2-1.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.3
ALABAMA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH FLORIDAALABAMA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB69%Daquan EvansDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAamaris BrownDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraxton ClarkCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Tramel LoganPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan RossDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLloyd Summerall IIIPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE18%Khafre BrownPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB17%Michel DukesPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL16%Donovan JenningsOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB12%Andrew Mata'afaLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBDe'Shawn Rucker · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEFred Gaskin III · SIGNEE ★3Camren Campbell · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDinellson Exume · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Jenkins · SIGNEE ★3Ira Singleton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEAbdur-Rahmaan Yaseen · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEJonathan Echols · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Winton · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTa'ron Keith · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYNykahi Davenport · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLChenellson Exume · SIGNEE ★3Braden Carter · SIGNEE ★3Teriyan Morman · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBZavier Hamilton · SIGNEE ★3Rodney Hill · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
62.182 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
91.3100 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
44.032 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB35357710063 OF 6 GRADED
RB49497988117 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE515152502716 OF 27 GRADED
OL454554821817 OF 18 GRADED
DL676759361917 OF 19 GRADED
LB63634493159 OF 15 GRADED
DB525247352016 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%32
RECRUITING CLASS#50 · 1/27 BC63
CLASS RANK TREND+41 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 14 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALAKALEN DEBOERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USFALEX GOLESH2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSF OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE USF QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE USF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1818% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE USF RUNNING BACKSn=1112% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556065%94%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455793%44%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSESECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE USF PASS CATCHERSn=2750% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.1%
66.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.0%
69.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.7%
3.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USF, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE