SAT 22:15 ET|AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP30|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
30
8-4
37
34
20
74%
76
2
38.5
-2000
-22.5
HOME
24
3-9
7
3
11
14%
50
14
16.0
+1100
+22.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALLIB30—NMSU24
CLOSED LIB -22.5TOTAL 54.5NMSU COVERED · 54 POINTS · UNDER
LIB
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NMSU
LIB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NMSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADLIB -22.5
IMPLIED — LIB38.5
IMPLIED — NMSU16.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
LIBRECORD MATCHES
8-3ACTUALvs7.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.5
LIBERTY won 8 of 11 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NMSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.7
NEW MEXICO STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLIBERTYNEW MEXICO STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL55%Jonathan GrahamOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONX'Zauvea GadlinOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase MitchellPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB48%Tyren DupreeLB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Kobe SingletonPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BishopDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPreston HodgePORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE40%CJ DanielsPORTAL · LSU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah FrithWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah SmootWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL21%Kendy CharlesPORTAL · DUKE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryan WhiteheadPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB4%Johnathan BennettPORTAL · THE CITADEL · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB2%Malik CaperRB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLD.J. Geth · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAJohn Paul Flores · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEIzaiah Taylor · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBEthan Crisp · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTAidan Vaughan · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINKaidon Whidby · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJason Duclona · PORTAL ★3 · UCFDominick Hill · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLEAlex Oliver · PORTAL ★3 · VMI3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETyson Mobley · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAEric Smith · SIGNEE ★3Eli Sisson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBrenton Williams · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNEli Hall · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTKristyane Gregory · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBRyan Burger · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEJayden Bradford · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBCaden Williams · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LIBERTY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.063 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.021 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
64.581 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4040819253 OF 5 GRADED
RB444449641110 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE373731582415 OF 24 GRADED
OL404049761913 OF 19 GRADED
DL303048871715 OF 17 GRADED
LB39391357107 OF 10 GRADED
DB353533722317 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%29
RECRUITING CLASS#105 · 0/19 BC22
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 18 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NMSUTONY SANCHEZFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LIBJAMEY CHADWELL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLIB OFFENSENMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLIBERTY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE LIB QUARTERBACKSn=58% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS58% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLIBERTY OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE LIB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1924% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-7n=25 · 2 ROOMS51% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLIBERTY OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE LIB RUNNING BACKSn=1136% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 25 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552335%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELIBERTY OFFENSESECONDARYNEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE LIB PASS CATCHERSn=2442% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−12
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS69.2%
66.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS56.7%
63.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LIB, ORANGE = NMSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE