THU 19:30 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP50|O/U58.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
11-3
79
86
62
62%
58
70
28.0
+125
+2.5
HOME
28
8-5
28
55
45
39%
93
8
30.5
-145
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALASU31—TXST28
CLOSED TXST -2.5TOTAL 58.5ASU COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
ASU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TXST
ASU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TXST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL58.5
SPREADTXST -2.5
IMPLIED — ASU28.0
IMPLIED — TXST30.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
65FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.8
ARIZONA STATE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
TEXAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONA STATETEXAS STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB79%Chris EdmondsDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRo TorrenceDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan ClarkPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Elijhah BadgerPORTAL · FLORIDA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalin ConyersPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni SandersWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB43%Jaden RashadaQB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew PynePORTAL · MISSOURI · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob ConoverPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL40%Joey RamosOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSione FinauOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAaron FrostOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL36%Dashaun MalloryDL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael MatusDE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB12%Tevin WhiteRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB4%Will ShafferPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBCole Martin · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONKamari Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAMyles Rowser · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMarkeston Douglas · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEChamon Metayer · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOMalik McClain · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBSam Leavitt · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEINTACT
OLJalen Klemm · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONJosh Atkins · PORTAL ★3 · HAWAI'IFiliva'a Saluni · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJ'Mond Tapp · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJacob Kongaika · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJeffrey Clark · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEREFILLED
RBRaleek Brown · PORTAL ★4 · USCJason Brown Jr. · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
LBKeyshaun Elliott · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEAlbert Smith III · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.249 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.268 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
41.825 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB818195163 OF 6 GRADED
RB8484589666 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE535376362414 OF 24 GRADED
OL606059492315 OF 23 GRADED
DL505051572118 OF 21 GRADED
LB54547028108 OF 10 GRADED
DB525274372113 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE79th79
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%71
RECRUITING CLASS#48 · 1/21 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND+55 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 28 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNE2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESASU OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE ASU QUARTERBACKSn=699% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS58% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE ASU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2351% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE ASU RUNNING BACKSn=64% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557559%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE ASU PASS CATCHERSn=2464% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+4
−39
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.2%
58.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.4%
59.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ASU, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE