SAT 15:30 ET|ACRISURE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
6-7
61
76
22
88%
64
63
31.5
-122
-2.5
HOME
38
7-6
69
44
69
56%
61
74
29.0
+102
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWVU34—PITT38
CLOSED WVU -2.5TOTAL 60.5PITT COVERED · 72 POINTS · OVER
WVU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
PITT
WVU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PITT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADWVU -2.5
IMPLIED — WVU31.5
IMPLIED — PITT29.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
WVURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.6
WEST VIRGINIA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PITTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.1
PITTSBURGH won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWEST VIRGINIAPITTSBURGH2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB60%Beanie Bishop Jr.CB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi RuffinCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcis FloydS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Lee KpogbaLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJared BartlettPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLance DixonPORTAL · TOLEDO · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL41%Mike LockhartPORTAL · SMU · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTomiwa DurojaiyePORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen ThorntonDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL31%Zach FrazierDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDoug NesterOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE21%Devin CarterWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB14%Justin Johnson Jr.RB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJaheem Joseph · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNTJ Crandall · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEAyden Garnes · PORTAL ★3 · DUQUESNE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBReid Carrico · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATERickey Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLT.J. Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · TROYTy French · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBObinna Onwuka · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLXavier Bausley · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATEKyle Altuner · SIGNEE ★3Lucas Austin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJaden Bray · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJustin Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATERic'Darious Farmer · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTraevon Dunbar · SIGNEE ★3Diore Hubbard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WEST VIRGINIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.867 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
72.791 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.037 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB69697510072 OF 7 GRADED
RB50507810084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE535369842113 OF 21 GRADED
OL6060681001911 OF 19 GRADED
DL575775692011 OF 20 GRADED
LB48487054158 OF 15 GRADED
DB515153282312 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%53
RECRUITING CLASS#46 · 1/25 BC66
CLASS RANK TREND-11 · 3 CYCLES28
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 13 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PITTPAT NARDUZZI9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WVUNEAL BROWN6TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWVU OFFENSEPITT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPITTSBURGH DEFENSE WVU QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE WVU OFFENSIVE LINEn=190% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE WVU RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557251%24%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSESECONDARYPITTSBURGH DEFENSE WVU PASS CATCHERSn=2116% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
+6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.8%
46.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.7%
77.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WVU, ORANGE = PITT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE