SAT 15:30 ET|LUMEN FIELDNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP29|O/U56.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
8-5
46
64
19
28%
45
14
26.0
+185
+4.0
HOME
19
6-7
75
73
80
3%
34
91
30.0
-225
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWSU24—WASH19
CLOSED WASH -4.0TOTAL 56.0WSU COVERED · 43 POINTS · UNDER
WSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
WASH
WSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WASH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL56.0
SPREADWASH -4.0
IMPLIED — WSU26.0
IMPLIED — WASH30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
WSURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.7
WASHINGTON STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WASHRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.3
WASHINGTON won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTON STATEWASHINGTON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Cam WardPORTAL · MIAMI · 96% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB69%Sam Lockett IIIDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden HicksDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam LampkinDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB60%Nakia WatsonRB · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE51%Josh KellyPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLincoln VictorWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah HamiltonWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Brennan JacksonDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRon Stone Jr.DE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB31%Devin RichardsonLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL29%Konner GomnessOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMa'ake FifitaOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBZevi Eckhaus · PORTAL ★3 · BRYANTEvans Chuba · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBTyson Durant · PORTAL ★3 · AKRONJerrae Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVKayo Patu · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJosh Joyner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEKris Hutson · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONTre Shackelford · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYKyle Maxwell · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECH1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLSyrus Webster · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH TECHCamden DeGraw-Tryall · SIGNEE ★3Malachi Wrice · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBWesley Steiner · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNKeith Brown · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEFrank Cusano · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLAustin Lawrence · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN COLORADOCarson Osmus · SIGNEE ★3Chris Lino · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.841 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.342 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.736 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161998963 OF 6 GRADED
RB3434774685 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE616155642615 OF 26 GRADED
OL464654982012 OF 20 GRADED
DL363660862116 OF 21 GRADED
LB41412973118 OF 11 GRADED
DB383863682215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE46th46
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%21
RECRUITING CLASS#62 · 0/30 BC54
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WASHJEDD FISCHFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WSUJAKE DICKERT3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWSU OFFENSEWASH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU QUARTERBACKSn=611% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS43% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=202% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU RUNNING BACKSn=854% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554249%5%LINEBACKERSLB
0.452486%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSESECONDARYWASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU PASS CATCHERSn=2636% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−5
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.3%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.1%
74.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
3.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WSU, ORANGE = WASH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE