SAT 16:00 ET|DOWDY-FICKLEN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
5-6
39
56
4
88%
81
43
28.0
-115
+0.5
HOME
19
8-5
47
45
43
33%
62
24
28.5
-105
-0.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALAPP21—ECU19
CLOSED ECU -0.5TOTAL 56.5APP COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
APP
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ECU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADECU -0.5
IMPLIED — APP28.0
IMPLIED — ECU28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-6ACTUALvs4.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.3
APP STATE won 5 of 11 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ECURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.7
EAST CAROLINA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAPP STATEEAST CAROLINA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL79%Isaiah HelmsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamion DaleyOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBucky WilliamsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Nick RossS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrek FunderburkCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ JacksonS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB44%Andrew Parker Jr.LB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan SpellmanPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB39%Nate NoelPORTAL · MISSOURI · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE20%Dashaun DavisWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiller GibbsTE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMilan TuckerPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL19%DeAndre Dingle-PrincePORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA A&T · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevon HaiglerPORTAL · MURRAY STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB3%Ryan BurgerPORTAL · LIBERTY · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLLuke Burgess · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEMichael Marotta · PORTAL ★3 · VALDOSTA STATEGarner Langlo · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAvarion Cole · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA A&TMyles Farmer · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEJason Chambers · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
RBKhamani Alexander · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEWilliam Fowles · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEJose Leon · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Gee · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLNick Campbell · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEJoshua Donald · PORTAL ★3 · TROYJackson Bussey · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBMatthew Wilson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · APP STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.653 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.532 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
57.470 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB69694510042 OF 4 GRADED
RB40404010075 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE585851972213 OF 22 GRADED
OL585848502011 OF 20 GRADED
DL515159821813 OF 18 GRADED
LB37373696179 OF 17 GRADED
DB444439532013 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%10
RECRUITING CLASS#94 · 0/19 BC30
CLASS RANK TREND-11 · 3 CYCLES28
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 15 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ECUMIKE HOUSTON6TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
APPSHAWN CLARK5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAPP OFFENSEECU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAPP STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEEAST CAROLINA DEFENSE APP QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 61 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAPP STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7EAST CAROLINA DEFENSE APP OFFENSIVE LINEn=2050% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS18% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAPP STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7EAST CAROLINA DEFENSE APP RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS20% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555491%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAPP STATE OFFENSESECONDARYEAST CAROLINA DEFENSE APP PASS CATCHERSn=223% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
0
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.3%
55.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.5%
60.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = APP, ORANGE = ECU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE