FRI 22:30 ET|CEFCU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
16
7-6
12
11
24
10%
11
21
19.5
+330
+11.5
HOME
14
3-9
21
53
16
59%
51
38
31.0
-425
-11.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCMU16—SJSU14
CLOSED SJSU -11.5TOTAL 50.5CMU COVERED · 30 POINTS · UNDER
CMU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
SJSU
CMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SJSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADSJSU -11.5
IMPLIED — CMU19.5
IMPLIED — SJSU31.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
55FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 44-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
CMURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCENTRAL MICHIGANSAN JOSÉ STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB93%Marion LukesRB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONB.J. HarrisRB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles BaileyRB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE73%Gavin HarrisPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJesse Prewitt IIIWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris ParkerPORTAL · UCONN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL65%Dominic Serapiglia IIIOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavis HeinzenPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden SwartoutOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Jason WilliamsDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonah PacePORTAL · IOWA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden DavisDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB39%Donte KentDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Raun McKinneyDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB28%Justin WhitesideLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB24%Tyler JeffersonPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTrey Cornist · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEJayel Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TERusty VanWetzinga IV · PORTAL ★3 · IOWABraylen Naves · SIGNEE ★3Max Macklem · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLJohn Iannuzzi · PORTAL ★3 · COLUMBIAJacob Russell · PORTAL ★3 · VALPARAISOTriston Pierre · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLJoey VanWetzinga · PORTAL ★3 · IOWADylan Fisher · PORTAL · OHIO DOMINICANREFILLED
DBKalen Carroll · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIMaddix Blackwell · PORTAL · INDIANA STATEElijah Gordon · PORTAL · SAGINAW VALLEY STATEREFILLED
LBJeremiah McKenzie · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAngel Flores · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ARIZONAKalen Fisher · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Gomez · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.470 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.353 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.685 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3939658575 OF 7 GRADED
RB4747426599 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE474742411912 OF 19 GRADED
OL272736721616 OF 16 GRADED
DL444423501615 OF 16 GRADED
LB424238931210 OF 12 GRADED
DB464643612018 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE12th12
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%3
RECRUITING CLASS#113 · 0/12 BC16
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 10 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CMUMATT DRINKALLFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCMU OFFENSESJSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE CMU QUARTERBACKSn=715% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 43 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE CMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1628% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-7n=25 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE CMU RUNNING BACKSn=935% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 25 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552644%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4523100%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSESECONDARYSAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE CMU PASS CATCHERSn=1959% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−15
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS72.4%
45.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS46.8%
76.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CMU, ORANGE = SJSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE