SAT 18:00 ET|WALLACE WADE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
9-4
27
28
50
29%
74
2
14.5
+550
+17.5
HOME
26
9-4
50
13
87
50%
40
54
32.0
-800
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALCONN21—DUKE26
CLOSED DUKE -17.5TOTAL 46.5CONN COVERED · 47 POINTS · OVER
CONN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
DUKE
CONN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
DUKE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADDUKE -17.5
IMPLIED — CONN14.5
IMPLIED — DUKE32.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
29FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
CONNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.5
UCONN won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.7
DUKE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCONNDUKE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%Ta'Quan RobersonPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB65%Jackson MitchellLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah PlackLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE62%Justin JolyPORTAL · NC STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam RossPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeordon PorterWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Eric WattsDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSokoya McDuffieDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaashaan Wilkins Jr.DL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Christian HaynesDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoel Ofori-NyaduOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB30%Chris ShearinPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMumu Bin-WahadDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB13%Jalen MitchellPORTAL · TENNESSEE TECH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNick Evers · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINCole Welliver · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJayden McDonald · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAAaron Key · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYKaleb Stewart · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TETJ Sheffield · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEShamar Porter · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYSkyler Bell · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJevon Banks · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEJayden Simon · PORTAL ★3 · TULSACooper Ackerman · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJa'Khi Green · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEWes Hoeh · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEDeron McLaughlin · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBMalachi McLean · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEJordan Wright · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEReggie Akles · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBMel Brown · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBDurell Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCONN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.027 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
20.86 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.766 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4545445054 OF 5 GRADED
RB55554741106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE515163412414 OF 24 GRADED
OL626234681913 OF 19 GRADED
DL494942681610 OF 16 GRADED
LB46463953158 OF 15 GRADED
DB525234491811 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE27th27
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%41
RECRUITING CLASS#118 · 0/13 BC12
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 24 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMANNY DIAZFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CONNJIM MORA3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCONN OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCONN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE CONN QUARTERBACKSn=550% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCONN OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE CONN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1932% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCONN OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE CONN RUNNING BACKSn=1059% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558374%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCONN OFFENSESECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE CONN PASS CATCHERSn=2459% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM2% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−25
−20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.9%
52.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.2%
70.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CONN, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE