SAT 19:00 ET|DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP46|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
7-6
52
23
53
33%
100
26
10.0
+4000
+36.5
HOME
56
13-3
98
91
100
47%
87
83
46.5
-20000
-36.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALUTSA7—TEX56
CLOSED TEX -36.5TOTAL 56.5TEX COVERED · 63 POINTS · OVER
UTSA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TEX
UTSA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TEX
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADTEX -36.5
IMPLIED — UTSA10.0
IMPLIED — TEX46.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.9
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs11.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.2
TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTSATEXAS2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB76%Frank HarrisQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB67%Rashad WisdomS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNicktroy FortuneCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam AlexanderPORTAL · OREGON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Ernesto AlmarazOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell HaynesOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB39%Trey MoorePORTAL · TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvery MorrisPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE37%Joshua CephusWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTykee Ogle-KelloggWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL33%Trumane Bell IIDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick Booker-BrownDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon MattersonDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB2%Kaedric CobbsPORTAL · BRYANT · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDematrius Davis · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA STATEREFILLED
DBDenver Harris · PORTAL ★4 · LSUZach Morris · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOJermarius Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKamar Missouri · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSJaylen Garth · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONCJ James · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKendrick Blackshire · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASIan Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMABrevin Randle · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHREFILLED
WR/TEDJ Allen · PORTAL ★3 · TCUJJ Sparkman · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHMekhi Anderson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLDaemian Wimberly · PORTAL ★3 · SMUZechariah Robinson · SIGNEE ★3Chidera Otutu · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBFrankie Arthur Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Will Henderson III · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.552 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.674 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.538 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB59596710052 OF 5 GRADED
RB32325587106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE565643872217 OF 22 GRADED
OL494947342013 OF 20 GRADED
DL727257811816 OF 18 GRADED
LB676745832014 OF 20 GRADED
DB414135611715 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE52nd52
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%59
RECRUITING CLASS#123 · 1/13 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-50 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 15 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTSA OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTSA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE UTSA QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTSA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE UTSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2066% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTSA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE UTSA RUNNING BACKSn=1013% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS38% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558049%75%LINEBACKERSLB
0.458878%62%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTSA OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE UTSA PASS CATCHERSn=2213% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM19% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.6%
56.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.5%
68.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.6%
3.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTSA, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE