SAT 19:30 ET|AMON G. CARTER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/U61.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
4-8
77
88
80
40%
69
77
30.0
+124
+1.5
HOME
34
9-4
80
89
66
54%
68
53
31.5
-148
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUCF35—TCU34
CLOSED TCU -1.5TOTAL 61.5UCF COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
UCF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TCU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL61.5
SPREADTCU -1.5
IMPLIED — UCF30.0
IMPLIED — TCU31.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UCF won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.0
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCFTCU2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%John Rhys PlumleeQB · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTimmy McClainPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB90%Jason JohnsonLB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWalter Yates IIILB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRian DavisLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Nikai MartinezPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey ThorntonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJireh WilsonDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Lokahi PauoleOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTylan GrableDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBula SchmidtOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE50%Alec HollerTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon BakerDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach Marsh WojanTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Tre'Mon Morris-BrashDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh CeliscarPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB11%Jordan McDonaldPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKJ Jefferson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASEJ Colson · SIGNEE ★3Riley Trujillo · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBXe'ree Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOJesiah Pierre · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHQua Birdsong · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBLadarius Tennison · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSDeshawn Pace · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATITre'Quon Fegans · PORTAL ★3 · USC6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJabari Brooks · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDWaltclaire Flynn Jr. · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEKylan Fox · SIGNEE ★4Bredell Richardson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLNyjalik Kelly · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMIDaylan Dotson · PORTAL ★3 · UT MARTINMarcus Downs · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBPeny Boone · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLEMyles Montgomery · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIStacy Gage · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCF
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.618 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.836 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.120 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464793564 OF 6 GRADED
RB6969507985 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE585867702114 OF 21 GRADED
OL545470982010 OF 20 GRADED
DL686869701612 OF 16 GRADED
LB53537141612 OF 16 GRADED
DB595961402216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO28%77
RECRUITING CLASS#35 · 6/17 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND+18 · 3 CYCLES86
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 25 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TCUSONNY DYKES3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCFGUS MALZAHN4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCF OFFENSETCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCF OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETCU DEFENSE UCF QUARTERBACKSn=665% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCF OFFENSEFRONT-7TCU DEFENSE UCF OFFENSIVE LINEn=202% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCF OFFENSEFRONT-7TCU DEFENSE UCF RUNNING BACKSn=821% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554049%42%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454871%21%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCF OFFENSESECONDARYTCU DEFENSE UCF PASS CATCHERSn=2130% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+23
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.8%
49.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.9%
72.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCF, ORANGE = TCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE