SAT 12:00 ET|KENAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP72|O/U48.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
70
9-4
13
11
68
4%
77
5
19.0
+310
+10.0
HOME
50
6-7
85
67
50
45%
84
49
29.0
-415
-10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALJMU70—UNC50
CLOSED UNC -10.0TOTAL 48.0JMU COVERED · 120 POINTS · OVER
JMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL48.0
SPREADUNC -10.0
IMPLIED — JMU19.0
IMPLIED — UNC29.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
JMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.1
JAMES MADISON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
NORTH CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJAMES MADISONNORTH CAROLINA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB99%Kaelon BlackPORTAL · INDIANA · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTy Son LawtonPORTAL · INDIANA · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLatrele PalmerRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB97%Jordan McCloudPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL91%James CarpenterPORTAL · INDIANA · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamree KromahDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikail KamaraPORTAL · INDIANA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Zach HortonPORTAL · INDIANA · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah SarrattPORTAL · INDIANA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReggie BrownWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB71%Aiden FisherPORTAL · INDIANA · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJailin WalkerPORTAL · INDIANA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%D'Angelo PondsPORTAL · INDIANA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFrancis MeehanS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarius ReimonenqS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL39%Tyler StephensPORTAL · INDIANA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarter MillerPORTAL · UL MONROE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBGeorge Pettaway · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAAyo Adeyi · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASTrashon Dye · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBDylan Morris · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONJC Evans · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLLloyd Summerall · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAEric O'Neill · PORTAL ★3 · LIU POSTTerry Lockett Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TENakai Poole · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATELogan Kyle · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTCam Ross · PORTAL ★3 · UCONN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJacob Dobbs · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSRaymond Scott · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATEREFILLED
DBTyjai Hopper · SIGNEE ★3Milt Ferguson · SIGNEE ★3KJ Flowe · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
OLJesse Ramil · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)Pat McMurtrie · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSDeacon Rawls · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JAMES MADISON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
28.75 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.924 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
22.82 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB27276410064 OF 6 GRADED
RB5454652477 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE434356421913 OF 19 GRADED
OL484835542015 OF 20 GRADED
DL656552402116 OF 21 GRADED
LB64646862118 OF 11 GRADED
DB545437342816 OF 28 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE13th13
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%47
RECRUITING CLASS#108 · 0/18 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND+48 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 26 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCMACK BROWN6TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4444
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JMUBOB CHESNEYFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJMU OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJAMES MADISON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE JMU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS15% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJAMES MADISON OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE JMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2046% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJAMES MADISON OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE JMU RUNNING BACKSn=776% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS6% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556090%59%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4557100%9%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJAMES MADISON OFFENSESECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE JMU PASS CATCHERSn=1958% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM23% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−59
+20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.1%
61.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.7%
69.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.6%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JMU, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE