SAT 12:00 ET|NIPPERT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
0
4-8
53
14
76
64%
3
84
21.8
+150
+4.0
HOME
34
5-7
57
74
71
31%
69
80
25.8
-175
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALHOU0—CIN34
CLOSED CIN -4.0TOTAL 47.5CIN COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
HOU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CIN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADCIN -4.0
IMPLIED — HOU21.8
IMPLIED — CIN25.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.9
HOUSTON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CINRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
CINCINNATI won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHOUSTONCINCINNATI2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL75%Patrick PaulDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack FreemanOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler JohnsonG · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%David UgwoegbuDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNelson CeaserDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamaree CaldwellPORTAL · OREGON · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%Malik RobinsonLB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHasaan HypoliteLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTreylin PaynePORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB68%Isaiah HamiltonPORTAL · OLE MISS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik FlemingDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian GeorgeDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Samuel BrownPORTAL · MIAMI · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike O'LaughlinTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew GoldenPORTAL · TEXAS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB6%Brandon CampbellPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLRayquan Bell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKeith Cooper · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEQuindario Lee · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANGabe Peterson · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBCorey Platt Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · TULANEKendre Gant · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANAChristian Brathwaite · PORTAL ★3 · LSU1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJeremiah Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEKriston Davis · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERNHershey McLaurin · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMaliq Carr · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMekhi Mews · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIADevan Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TULSA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJ'Marion Burnette · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.712 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.641 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.89 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6060665174 OF 7 GRADED
RB4747564297 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE585863352411 OF 24 GRADED
OL545459751811 OF 18 GRADED
DL646460361912 OF 19 GRADED
LB52526260106 OF 10 GRADED
DB505077242115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%60
RECRUITING CLASS#60 · 2/14 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND-10 · 3 CYCLES30
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 27 IN / 34 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HOUWILLIE FRITZFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHOU OFFENSECIN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHOUSTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECINCINNATI DEFENSE HOU QUARTERBACKSn=749% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE HOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1825% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE HOU RUNNING BACKSn=958% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554657%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHOUSTON OFFENSESECONDARYCINCINNATI DEFENSE HOU PASS CATCHERSn=2465% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM71% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+28
+9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.0%
55.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS49.4%
65.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HOU, ORANGE = CIN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE