SAT 15:30 ET|MICHIGAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
7-6
90
93
67
22%
80
74
24.0
-185
-4.0
HOME
27
8-5
89
59
85
26%
9
82
20.0
+154
+4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUSC24—MICH27
CLOSED USC -4.0TOTAL 44.0MICH COVERED · 51 POINTS · OVER
USC
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MICH
USC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MICH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADUSC -4.0
IMPLIED — USC24.0
IMPLIED — MICH20.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
USCRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
USC won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MICHRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.8
MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUSCMICHIGAN2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB93%MarShawn LloydDRAFTED · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin JonesRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB87%Caleb WilliamsDRAFTED · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB61%Calen BullockDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian Roland-WallaceCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDomani JacksonPORTAL · ALABAMA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE55%Tahj WashingtonDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenden RiceDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorian SingerPORTAL · UTAH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL53%Solomon ByrdDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStanley Ta'ufo'ouPORTAL · ARIZONA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyon BarrsDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Justin DedichOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarrett KingstonDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael TarquinPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Tackett CurtisPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello HeightPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane LeeLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBWoody Marks · PORTAL ★4 · MISSISSIPPI STATEPARTIAL
QBJayden Maiava · PORTAL ★4 · UNLVREFILLED
DBKamari Ramsey · PORTAL ★4 · UCLAAkili Arnold · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEJohn Humphrey · PORTAL ★3 · UCLA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJaden Richardson · PORTAL ★3 · TUFTS UNIVERSITYDJ Jordan · SIGNEE ★4Walter Matthews · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLNate Clifton · PORTAL ★4 · VANDERBILTKameryn Crawford · SIGNEE ★4Carlon Jones · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLJason Zandamela · SIGNEE ★4Makai Saina · SIGNEE ★4Justin Tauanuu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBEaston Mascarenas-Arnold · PORTAL ★4 · OREGON STATEElijah Newby · SIGNEE ★4Desman Stephens II · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · USC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.730 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.822 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.139 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8888926862 OF 6 GRADED
RB5757882564 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE585884832413 OF 24 GRADED
OL616189961812 OF 18 GRADED
DL363679621811 OF 18 GRADED
LB292990541410 OF 14 GRADED
DB565684412014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE90th90
BLUE-CHIP RATIO46%88
RECRUITING CLASS#17 · 13/25 BC88
CLASS RANK TREND+53 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 16 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MICHSHERRONE MOOREFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1010
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USCLINCOLN RILEY3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSC OFFENSEMICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUSC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN DEFENSE USC QUARTERBACKSn=632% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 64 PLAYERS22% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUSC OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE USC OFFENSIVE LINEn=184% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-7n=40 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUSC OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE USC RUNNING BACKSn=675% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 40 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557193%35%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455861%29%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUSC OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN DEFENSE USC PASS CATCHERSn=2417% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+6
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS45.4%
67.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.5%
62.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USC, ORANGE = MICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE