SAT 16:00 ET|JOHNNY "RED" FLOYD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/U51.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
9-4
50
13
87
50%
40
67
32.8
-625
-14.5
HOME
17
3-9
19
17
1
56%
18
14
18.3
+455
+14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALDUKE45—MTSU17
CLOSED DUKE -14.5TOTAL 51.0DUKE COVERED · 62 POINTS · OVER
DUKE
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MTSU
DUKE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MTSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL51.0
SPREADDUKE -14.5
IMPLIED — DUKE32.8
IMPLIED — MTSU18.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
32FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT21 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 21 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
DUKERECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.7
DUKE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-16.2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERDUKEMIDDLE TENNESSEE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL72%Jake HornibrookOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob MonkDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMaurice McIntyreOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL62%DeWayne CarterDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAeneas PeeblesPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONR.J. ObenPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Jordan WatersPORTAL · NC STATE · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen ColemanRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB49%Riley LeonardPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB46%Al Blades Jr.CB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon JohnsonPORTAL · OREGON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah LewisS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB38%Dorian MausiPORTAL · AUBURN · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam DillonLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE22%Jalon CalhounWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLMicah Sahakian · PORTAL ★3 · CORNELLMike Barr · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTEJames Pogorelc · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORD3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKendy Charles · PORTAL ★4 · LIBERTYKobe Smith · SIGNEE ★3Preston Watson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBStar Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEREFILLED
QBMaalik Murphy · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASINTACT
DBTre'Shon Devones · PORTAL ★3 · RICEKyren Condoll · SIGNEE ★3Khari Reid · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBOzzie Nicholas · PORTAL ★3 · PRINCETONAlex Howard · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MMontreze Smith Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJavon Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONJayden Moore · SIGNEE ★3Brett Elliott · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · DUKE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.451 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.844 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.849 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7575891062 OF 6 GRADED
RB3535643785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE666665652112 OF 21 GRADED
OL717152561713 OF 17 GRADED
DL838371741814 OF 18 GRADED
LB727272521410 OF 14 GRADED
DB747468981913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%30
RECRUITING CLASS#61 · 1/18 BC55
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 18 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MTSUDEREK MASONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
DUKEMANNY DIAZFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESDUKE OFFENSEMTSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBDUKE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE DUKE QUARTERBACKSn=690% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLDUKE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE DUKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=1744% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBDUKE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE DUKE RUNNING BACKSn=863% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553262%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEDUKE OFFENSESECONDARYMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE DUKE PASS CATCHERSn=2135% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−20
+15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.0%
45.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.8%
71.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = DUKE, ORANGE = MTSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE