SAT 16:15 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U52.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
7-6
64
65
36
16%
7
90
17.3
+625
+17.5
HOME
30
10-3
87
63
88
88%
88
80
34.8
-950
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALVAN27—MIZ30
CLOSED MIZ -17.5TOTAL 52.0VAN COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
VAN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MIZ
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL52.0
SPREADMIZ -17.5
IMPLIED — VAN17.3
IMPLIED — MIZ34.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
VANRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.6
VANDERBILT won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.5-3.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.0
MISSOURI won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVANDERBILTMISSOURI2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%AJ SwannPORTAL · LSU · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKen SealsPORTAL · TCU · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE79%Justin BallPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill SheppardPORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden McGowanPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB44%Ethan BarrPORTAL · UCF · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKane PattersonLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL43%Bradley AshmoreOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulian HernandezOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB38%Patrick SmithPORTAL · UT MARTIN · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB32%Jaylen MahoneyDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSavion RileyPORTAL · COLORADO · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn Howse IVPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL25%Nate CliftonPORTAL · USC · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNate Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHDiego Pavia · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEBlaze Berlowitz · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEEli Stowers · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATELoic Fouonji · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHJoseph McVay · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJamison Curtis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLSteven Losoya · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEPARTIAL
RBJohann Cardenas · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBRandon Fontenette · PORTAL ★3 · TCUMarlon Jones Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN WASHINGTONMicah Bell · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAME4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLZaylin Wood · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEMason Carter · SIGNEE ★3Simeon Boulware · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VANDERBILT
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.666 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
39.025 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
64.580 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB939385061 OF 6 GRADED
RB64646787105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE585874462313 OF 23 GRADED
OL505065432010 OF 20 GRADED
DL595956582012 OF 20 GRADED
LB56566686119 OF 11 GRADED
DB505067602117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%57
RECRUITING CLASS#40 · 2/20 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MIZELI DRINKWITZ5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VANCLARK LEA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVAN OFFENSEMIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVANDERBILT OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSOURI DEFENSE VAN QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVANDERBILT OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE VAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2057% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVANDERBILT OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE VAN RUNNING BACKSn=1013% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557040%32%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456973%15%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVANDERBILT OFFENSESECONDARYMISSOURI DEFENSE VAN PASS CATCHERSn=2354% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS67.1%
63.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.8%
67.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
4.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VAN, ORANGE = MIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE