SAT 19:00 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP25|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
6-7
66
29
62
59%
41
56
20.5
+120
+3.0
HOME
14
2-10
91
26
72
21%
6
97
23.5
-142
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCAL9—FSU14
CLOSED FSU -3.0TOTAL 44.0FSU COVERED · 23 POINTS · UNDER
CAL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADFSU -3.0
IMPLIED — CAL20.5
IMPLIED — FSU23.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
25FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
CALRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.9
CALIFORNIA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.6
FLORIDA STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCALIFORNIAFLORIDA STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE54%Jeremiah HunterPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaj DavisWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonroe YoungWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Kaleb Elarms-OrrPORTAL · TCU · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson SirmonLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL41%Brian DriscollOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBarrett MillerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Patrick McMorrisDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah EarbyPORTAL · BOISE STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaylin MoorePORTAL · UCLA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL34%Brett JohnsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles JerniganPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB27%Ben FinleyPORTAL · AKRON · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB27%Isaiah IfanseRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshton StredickRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TETobias Merriweather · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEMikey Matthews · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHKyion Grayes · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTeddye Buchanan · PORTAL ★3 · UC DAVISLiam Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · PRINCETONEze Osondu · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBraden Miller · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATERush Reimer · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA STATEAiden Newbill · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBMarcus Harris · PORTAL ★4 · IDAHOJasiah Wagoner · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMARyan Yaites · PORTAL ★3 · LSU2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLT.J. Bollers · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINBJ Canady · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBChandler Rogers · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASEJ Caminong · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBKadarius Calloway · PORTAL ★4 · OLD DOMINIONJamaal Wiley · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CALIFORNIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
59.776 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.473 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.374 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5454848164 OF 6 GRADED
RB4646838485 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE494971362216 OF 22 GRADED
OL404062431812 OF 18 GRADED
DL52527065158 OF 15 GRADED
LB68687856189 OF 18 GRADED
DB696971752115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%72
RECRUITING CLASS#55 · 1/20 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 23 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CALJUSTIN WILCOX8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCAL OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE CAL QUARTERBACKSn=619% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE CAL OFFENSIVE LINEn=1857% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE CAL RUNNING BACKSn=816% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558066%30%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456678%21%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECALIFORNIA OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE CAL PASS CATCHERSn=2264% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM15% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+6
+53
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.7%
52.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.4%
68.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CAL, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE