SAT 19:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP40|O/U64.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
50
10-3
91
100
57
47%
92
61
40.8
-900
-17.0
HOME
15
7-6
50
20
48
86%
89
29
23.8
+600
+17.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMIA50—USF15
CLOSED MIA -17.0TOTAL 64.5MIA COVERED · 65 POINTS · OVER
MIA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL64.5
SPREADMIA -17.0
IMPLIED — MIA40.8
IMPLIED — USF23.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+20.3
MIAMI won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTH FLORIDA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMISOUTH FLORIDA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB83%Tyler Van DykePORTAL · WISCONSIN · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacurri BrownPORTAL · UCF · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL71%Jared Harrison-HuntePORTAL · SMU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeonard Taylor IIIDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBranson DeenDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB70%James WilliamsDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden DavisDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTe'Cory CouchCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB62%Henry Parrish Jr.PORTAL · OLE MISS · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrashard SmithPORTAL · SMU · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDon ChaneyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB56%K.J. CloydLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden WaynePORTAL · WASHINGTON · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeontra SmithLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL29%Matt LeeDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavion CohenOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE18%Colbie YoungPORTAL · GEORGIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCam Ward · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTON STATEREFILLED
DLTyler Baron · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLEMarley Cook · PORTAL ★4 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEC.J. Clark · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATE7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMishael Powell · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONZaquan Patterson · SIGNEE ★4Ryan Mack · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBDamien Martinez · PORTAL ★4 · OREGON STATEJordan Lyle · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBAdarius Hayes · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLZach Carpenter · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAREFILLED
WR/TESam Brown · PORTAL ★4 · HOUSTONJoshisa Trader · SIGNEE ★4Ny Carr · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.417 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.046 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.915 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB828296593 OF 9 GRADED
RB8383954296 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE868685792316 OF 23 GRADED
OL767683722015 OF 20 GRADED
DL808084452117 OF 21 GRADED
LB69698875138 OF 13 GRADED
DB575765581812 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO47%88
RECRUITING CLASS#4 · 14/27 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+12 · 3 CYCLES74
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 14 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFALEX GOLESH2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIAMARIO CRISTOBAL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIA OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE MIA QUARTERBACKSn=995% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS54% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE MIA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2028% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE MIA RUNNING BACKSn=958% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS38% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556736%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE MIA PASS CATCHERSn=2321% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM65% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.3%
55.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.2%
61.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.0%
2.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIA, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE