SAT 12:00 ET|MCLANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP25|O/U47.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
11-2
44
82
61
56%
32
52
22.0
+130
+3.0
HOME
28
8-5
69
75
55
55%
71
57
25.0
-155
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBYU34—BAY28
CLOSED BAY -3.0TOTAL 47.0BYU COVERED · 62 POINTS · OVER
BYU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BAY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL47.0
SPREADBAY -3.0
IMPLIED — BYU22.0
IMPLIED — BAY25.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT29 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 29 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 52 games because 1 carries no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
BYURECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.7
BYU won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.4
BAYLOR won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBYUBAYLOR2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB80%AJ VongphachanhLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax TooleyLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen BywaterLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB66%Kedon SlovisQB · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB45%Aidan RobbinsRB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeion SmithRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB38%Eddie HeckardCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamden GarrettCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Paul MaileOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKingsley SuamataiaDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL33%Jackson CravensDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAtunaisa MaheDT · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Isaac RexTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBFaletau Satuala · SIGNEE ★4Ephraim Asiata · SIGNEE ★3Blake Lowe · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBTreyson Bourguet · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANMcCae Hillstead · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEGerry Bohanon · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBMarque Collins · PORTAL ★3 · WEBER STATETherrian Alexander III · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLAustin Leausa · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN UTAHIkinasio Tupou · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJack Kelly · PORTAL ★4 · WEBER STATEChoe Bryant-Strother · PORTAL ★3 · UCLANaki Tuakoi · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERyner Swanson · SIGNEE ★4Tei Nacua · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BYU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
57.170 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
63.279 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.861 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5858929962 OF 6 GRADED
RB5656546286 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626253962515 OF 25 GRADED
OL606055761912 OF 19 GRADED
DL464634861914 OF 19 GRADED
LB676767611311 OF 13 GRADED
DB646450692318 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE44th44
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%56
RECRUITING CLASS#44 · 2/25 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 9 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BYUKALANI SITAKE9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBYU OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBYU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE BYU QUARTERBACKSn=61% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBYU OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE BYU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1924% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBYU OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE BYU RUNNING BACKSn=838% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556155%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455555%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBYU OFFENSESECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE BYU PASS CATCHERSn=254% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−46
−4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.4%
60.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.3%
60.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BYU, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE